I've just come from a lunch at which US science journalist and author Chris Mooney spoke about the war on science in the US. At the end a question was asked what advice Chris would give a young scientist on what to do to combat he war.
He replied "be prepared". I think the better answer is "be humble." Science has taken to lecturing evryone else, the worst example being the approach of the "new atheists". Scientists need to acknowledge that their "knowledge" is fallible, that it is not absolute truth but just the closest we have to something we can believe is true. On the very day of the speech an elephant in Sydney gave birth to a baby that had been pronounced dead by the veterinary experts - was it as dead as Lazarus.
The physics of Newton is wrong, the evolution of Darwin is wrong.
In the climate change debate scientists need to be humble and NOT say the science proves that the planet is warming and instead say there is a complete theory that is well supported by evidence. The two possible errors are to not act and the theory is right, or to act but the theory is wrong. It is not hard to demonstrate that these risks are assymetric, and that action is required.
Science, be humble and you wll be more successful in policy.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Faith, hope and love
In the ongoing discussion between "new atheists" and "intelligent design theory" I come to the position of reflecting on my own position.
It has always appeared to me that the attempt by anyone who "believes" to try to support their belief by "fact", be that discovering the historic Christ or intelligen desgn, belittles their faith. The historic "fact" doesn't help the need to find bits to ignore - the hstoric Christ, for example, never spoke against slavery. And intelligent design fails both because of Bertrand Russells response to Parry (??) on the "watchmaker" argument of who made the watch? If the desin needs a maker, then the maker needs a maker. The "odds" of the universe turnng out just like it is are not all these astronomcal numbrs that some design theorists quote, but 1. The odds of getting six heads in a row at a coin toss before hand are 1 in two to the power of six. But after I've tossed six heads they are 1.
The question on the existence of the spiritual is one of faith, and it is one of faith because it IS unknowable.
Given the choice between a rational world and a world with a "spiritual intelligence" the difference is that in the latter there is hope.
And finally there is love. The reason to adopt the Christian faith is that, compaed to all others, it works. And it works by preaching a message of lve.
Faith, hope and love - that is it!
It has always appeared to me that the attempt by anyone who "believes" to try to support their belief by "fact", be that discovering the historic Christ or intelligen desgn, belittles their faith. The historic "fact" doesn't help the need to find bits to ignore - the hstoric Christ, for example, never spoke against slavery. And intelligent design fails both because of Bertrand Russells response to Parry (??) on the "watchmaker" argument of who made the watch? If the desin needs a maker, then the maker needs a maker. The "odds" of the universe turnng out just like it is are not all these astronomcal numbrs that some design theorists quote, but 1. The odds of getting six heads in a row at a coin toss before hand are 1 in two to the power of six. But after I've tossed six heads they are 1.
The question on the existence of the spiritual is one of faith, and it is one of faith because it IS unknowable.
Given the choice between a rational world and a world with a "spiritual intelligence" the difference is that in the latter there is hope.
And finally there is love. The reason to adopt the Christian faith is that, compaed to all others, it works. And it works by preaching a message of lve.
Faith, hope and love - that is it!
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Facets of telco regulation
The CEO of ACCAN, Alan Asher, when discussing the status of telco regulation in Australia will at times note the lack of effective enforcement action by our regulators. Meanwhile Communications Alliance CEO Anne Hurley upset some of her members when in response to the Government consultation on Australian Consumer Law she suggested that the telco sector should only face one consumer regulator not two.
Today there is a report that one telco has admitted to the ACCC that its sales practices were likely to mislead customers, and that it had referred consumer debts to debt collection agencies while disputed over the "slamming" that had occurred.
The interesting point is that while these actions fall foul of the general prohibitions in the Trade Practices Act, they are each specificinstances of breaches of the relevant industry codes. In particular they are breaches of the Consumer Protection Code provisions on sales practices, complaint handling and credit management.
The question is why are the matters being dealt with by the ACCC under the general powers rather than the ACMA under the specific powers.
Meanwhile there are also a report of the ACMA prosecuting a telco over actions in breach of the Do Not Call register legislation when the same behaviour was dealt with under enforcement by the ACCC. Clearly in this case it is different aspects of the conduct being prosecuted - ringing the wrong people versus saying the wrong things.
Both cases involve a telco employing a selling agent, a case which always creates compliance challenges. In the latter case the telco claims it is being pursued over practices that it has fixed. It ultimately raises the question of how compliance programs should work and how much protection a firm should ge from them.
By their very natue sales activities are not directly supervised and "agents" (be they individuals within a sales organisation or a outsourced agency) can have incentives to "break the rules". As a consequence breaches are almost certain to occur - just as the law against fraud doesn't mean there isn't lots of fraud, or the law against theft doesn't stop lots of petty cash tins being light.
In those cases the enforcement action is usually brought directly on the contravening individual, but compliance with the TPA or telco codes is a responsibility of the principal not the agent.
It was in recognition of this fact that the ACCC played a leading role in the creation of an Australian Standard for compliance programs. The ACCC at least informally considers the approach to compliance in its decisions on whether to prosecute. I don't think the ACMA has developed as sophisticated a view. Certainly consumer advocates seem to be unaware of the distinction.
Ultimately the issue is how well you as a firm communicate the compliance message, train staff or agents on compliance and legal obligations, construct incentive schemes so that non-compliance can't be rewarded and finally manage the complaint process so that complaints that indicate non-compliance are aggressively used to identify "rogue" agents. It is unfortunately the latter that is most usually deficient with telcos all too often wanting to believe that the customer's claim of misleading conduct is just a cover for wanting to brake a contract.
Meanwhile in Europe regulators have taken decisve action on the latest source of mobile "bill shock" - high data roaming charges. Could Australia apply to be part of Europe for this?
Today there is a report that one telco has admitted to the ACCC that its sales practices were likely to mislead customers, and that it had referred consumer debts to debt collection agencies while disputed over the "slamming" that had occurred.
The interesting point is that while these actions fall foul of the general prohibitions in the Trade Practices Act, they are each specificinstances of breaches of the relevant industry codes. In particular they are breaches of the Consumer Protection Code provisions on sales practices, complaint handling and credit management.
The question is why are the matters being dealt with by the ACCC under the general powers rather than the ACMA under the specific powers.
Meanwhile there are also a report of the ACMA prosecuting a telco over actions in breach of the Do Not Call register legislation when the same behaviour was dealt with under enforcement by the ACCC. Clearly in this case it is different aspects of the conduct being prosecuted - ringing the wrong people versus saying the wrong things.
Both cases involve a telco employing a selling agent, a case which always creates compliance challenges. In the latter case the telco claims it is being pursued over practices that it has fixed. It ultimately raises the question of how compliance programs should work and how much protection a firm should ge from them.
By their very natue sales activities are not directly supervised and "agents" (be they individuals within a sales organisation or a outsourced agency) can have incentives to "break the rules". As a consequence breaches are almost certain to occur - just as the law against fraud doesn't mean there isn't lots of fraud, or the law against theft doesn't stop lots of petty cash tins being light.
In those cases the enforcement action is usually brought directly on the contravening individual, but compliance with the TPA or telco codes is a responsibility of the principal not the agent.
It was in recognition of this fact that the ACCC played a leading role in the creation of an Australian Standard for compliance programs. The ACCC at least informally considers the approach to compliance in its decisions on whether to prosecute. I don't think the ACMA has developed as sophisticated a view. Certainly consumer advocates seem to be unaware of the distinction.
Ultimately the issue is how well you as a firm communicate the compliance message, train staff or agents on compliance and legal obligations, construct incentive schemes so that non-compliance can't be rewarded and finally manage the complaint process so that complaints that indicate non-compliance are aggressively used to identify "rogue" agents. It is unfortunately the latter that is most usually deficient with telcos all too often wanting to believe that the customer's claim of misleading conduct is just a cover for wanting to brake a contract.
Meanwhile in Europe regulators have taken decisve action on the latest source of mobile "bill shock" - high data roaming charges. Could Australia apply to be part of Europe for this?
Monday, March 01, 2010
National Curricula or Standard Texts?
The PM and Deputy PM have released first four draft national curricula (English, Maths, Science and History)for K-12. In doing so they have stated that;
Having an online curriculum means the curriculum will be dynamic, and easily updated, in contrast with the static, hard-copy format. The Australian Curriculum will be among the world's first curriculum delivered online.
From next year, students from all states and territories will be able to move schools, school systems and states and be taught the same knowledge, skills and understanding as part of a curriculum for the 21st Century.
In doing so they started a consultation process that can be accessed through this website. This is an interesting example of Gov 2.0 consultation that has the annoying feature that you have to register to participate. Maybe on the theme of identifiers we need to have an identifier we can use to acess any Government consultation. (I didn't mind registering except for when registering as "community member", "organisation {or was it instititution}" was still a mandatory field and the rules on password standards were only revealed if you didn't meet them).
The site has a little video explaining the overall approach. The Chair, Barry McGaw said, there is still a desire for flexibility in the classroom. The individual subjects had these emphases.
Science - less quantity more quality. Not four strands, return to more traditional sciences. Students have been losing interest, recapture interest. Provide opportunity to get excited, and opportunity for trachers to use it.
History - work for a wide diversity of students. Increasing Australia's understanding of the region, understand better through a "world history" perspective. Big theme is question of "sustainability" - (huh)?
Mathematics - inclusive of everyone - everyone able to do it till at least the end of Year 9. There should be less in it! Students will "engage" in mathematics in he classroom.
English - intensifying the continuity of learning across time. Deal with fewer texts more deeply. Teachers making choices of texts.
The curriculum documents have two key elements, content descriptors and achievement standards. Content descriptions include knowledge skill and understanding expected together with elaborations. Achievement standards specify the quality of learning expected.
The ambition of national curricula to facilitate the educational experience of kids moving interstate is fine. But the test will be in exactly how much the "flexibility" is retained. Currently a kid can be exposed to the same thematic content in any of a number of years and can experience the problem of repeating or missing something just moving suburb. This is the "price" of flexibility.
I worry about the whole flexibility thing and the idea that more kids can be inspired by going deeper but narrower, or that the syllabus is so simple that anyone can do it. The unfortunate reality is that the best students can and should get a lot more than this.
The ambition of an "on-line curriculum" is interesting. At least it makes it far more accessible to parents. The real challenge will be the attendent curriculum resources.
As a kid we had textbooks - they laid out the content in its logical order. Even a substitute teacher knew where to pick up from. In the new world order this doesn't happen. In Maths in NSW they introduced a new curriculum in the mid 80s for primary school that needed lots of resources of things to count, make shapes of etc and so different schools would have different stuff.
Without textbooks there has been an explosion in the industry of "black line masters" which get photocopied for kids to learn from (do exercises on).
A realy sensible approach would see the extension of the curriculum site to include (a) a textbook (b) a resource of additional "black line masters" and (c) the inclusion of additional resources including SHORT videos that support aspects of the curriculum, and extension material. (It is possible to provide extension material in most of these curricula areas that is not just accelerating the kids further. There are a plethora of interesting things in number and geometry that don't get later touched on. In the sciences there are lots of extra interpretations).
I also note that there is already concern that teachers (history in this case) won't have the capacity to master the new syllabus. Greater use of the curricula website to provide content could go a long long way!
It is also disappointing that there is nothing in the maths curriculu that talks about (in years 7 to 10)demonstrating the real world application of every element of this. The use of ICT also seems to be poorly conceived - by year 10 a student should be learning how the concepts of mathematics underpin the operation of a computer.
I need to read the Maths and History syllabus in more detail to see if it addresses Lindsay Tanner's call for better maths and science inspiration. I also think a $2M program as also announced today won't go far on helping get kids excited about science just by more teaching about climate change.
Having an online curriculum means the curriculum will be dynamic, and easily updated, in contrast with the static, hard-copy format. The Australian Curriculum will be among the world's first curriculum delivered online.
From next year, students from all states and territories will be able to move schools, school systems and states and be taught the same knowledge, skills and understanding as part of a curriculum for the 21st Century.
In doing so they started a consultation process that can be accessed through this website. This is an interesting example of Gov 2.0 consultation that has the annoying feature that you have to register to participate. Maybe on the theme of identifiers we need to have an identifier we can use to acess any Government consultation. (I didn't mind registering except for when registering as "community member", "organisation {or was it instititution}" was still a mandatory field and the rules on password standards were only revealed if you didn't meet them).
The site has a little video explaining the overall approach. The Chair, Barry McGaw said, there is still a desire for flexibility in the classroom. The individual subjects had these emphases.
Science - less quantity more quality. Not four strands, return to more traditional sciences. Students have been losing interest, recapture interest. Provide opportunity to get excited, and opportunity for trachers to use it.
History - work for a wide diversity of students. Increasing Australia's understanding of the region, understand better through a "world history" perspective. Big theme is question of "sustainability" - (huh)?
Mathematics - inclusive of everyone - everyone able to do it till at least the end of Year 9. There should be less in it! Students will "engage" in mathematics in he classroom.
English - intensifying the continuity of learning across time. Deal with fewer texts more deeply. Teachers making choices of texts.
The curriculum documents have two key elements, content descriptors and achievement standards. Content descriptions include knowledge skill and understanding expected together with elaborations. Achievement standards specify the quality of learning expected.
The ambition of national curricula to facilitate the educational experience of kids moving interstate is fine. But the test will be in exactly how much the "flexibility" is retained. Currently a kid can be exposed to the same thematic content in any of a number of years and can experience the problem of repeating or missing something just moving suburb. This is the "price" of flexibility.
I worry about the whole flexibility thing and the idea that more kids can be inspired by going deeper but narrower, or that the syllabus is so simple that anyone can do it. The unfortunate reality is that the best students can and should get a lot more than this.
The ambition of an "on-line curriculum" is interesting. At least it makes it far more accessible to parents. The real challenge will be the attendent curriculum resources.
As a kid we had textbooks - they laid out the content in its logical order. Even a substitute teacher knew where to pick up from. In the new world order this doesn't happen. In Maths in NSW they introduced a new curriculum in the mid 80s for primary school that needed lots of resources of things to count, make shapes of etc and so different schools would have different stuff.
Without textbooks there has been an explosion in the industry of "black line masters" which get photocopied for kids to learn from (do exercises on).
A realy sensible approach would see the extension of the curriculum site to include (a) a textbook (b) a resource of additional "black line masters" and (c) the inclusion of additional resources including SHORT videos that support aspects of the curriculum, and extension material. (It is possible to provide extension material in most of these curricula areas that is not just accelerating the kids further. There are a plethora of interesting things in number and geometry that don't get later touched on. In the sciences there are lots of extra interpretations).
I also note that there is already concern that teachers (history in this case) won't have the capacity to master the new syllabus. Greater use of the curricula website to provide content could go a long long way!
It is also disappointing that there is nothing in the maths curriculu that talks about (in years 7 to 10)demonstrating the real world application of every element of this. The use of ICT also seems to be poorly conceived - by year 10 a student should be learning how the concepts of mathematics underpin the operation of a computer.
I need to read the Maths and History syllabus in more detail to see if it addresses Lindsay Tanner's call for better maths and science inspiration. I also think a $2M program as also announced today won't go far on helping get kids excited about science just by more teaching about climate change.
Ethics, culture and the new world order
I've written a few times about Philip Bobbit and Terror and Consent. He has a really detailed set of theses about the progression of history, the interplay between strategy (as in miltary or external strategy), technology and the constitutional order.
The latest phase he identifies is the "market state". It is a state that follows on from the "nation state" and the change is a consequence of the technologies that won the "long war" for parliamentary democracy (in 1990). Those technologies were nuclear weapons, and high speed communications and information processing.
This phase he maintains creates the need to think differently about strategy and constitutional order and whether a boundary ca be maintained between them. A related theme is the reaction of certain nations to the imposition of other values.
Three stories today highlight these issues.
The first is an item calling on Israel's friends to condemn it for state sponsored terrorism. This addresses ultimately the question of the vexed problem of non-nation international terrorist groups and how nations respond. The former are engaging in a "war" yet the latter are expected to respond within the confines of accepted "constitutional order".
The US to this day regrets that they didn't act like Istrael and "took out" Osama bin Laden when they had the chance before 2001. Perhaps the missing part is creating an appropriate framework for determining when the state action can be invoked, not if.
The second example is a really simple one of the international scope of Gogle, and the report that Google execs have been convicted in Italy over the actions of someone posting a video - subsequently taken down - of a disabled teenager being bulied. This reflects the inability of existing order to address the technology.
We've had our own recent issues with something similar with the approach taken to Facebook, with comments from Qld Premiere Bligh and the five questions posed to Facebook by the Punch.
Meanwhile we have perfctly reasonable "moralising" about the treatment of women in Malaysia. This particular case opens up the absurdity of culturally relative enforceable moral codes, the application of Sharia law to women in Malaysia is as unacceptable as the application of tribal law to Australian indigenies.
The project for a modern secular ethics is becoming more urgent. It has to be secular because it has to apply to all geographies and all religions. It has to accept that individuals have the freedom to hld their own beliefs.
Only with a modern secular ethics can we build a global political philosophy within which a new definition of the role of the individual state can be developed.
The latest phase he identifies is the "market state". It is a state that follows on from the "nation state" and the change is a consequence of the technologies that won the "long war" for parliamentary democracy (in 1990). Those technologies were nuclear weapons, and high speed communications and information processing.
This phase he maintains creates the need to think differently about strategy and constitutional order and whether a boundary ca be maintained between them. A related theme is the reaction of certain nations to the imposition of other values.
Three stories today highlight these issues.
The first is an item calling on Israel's friends to condemn it for state sponsored terrorism. This addresses ultimately the question of the vexed problem of non-nation international terrorist groups and how nations respond. The former are engaging in a "war" yet the latter are expected to respond within the confines of accepted "constitutional order".
The US to this day regrets that they didn't act like Istrael and "took out" Osama bin Laden when they had the chance before 2001. Perhaps the missing part is creating an appropriate framework for determining when the state action can be invoked, not if.
The second example is a really simple one of the international scope of Gogle, and the report that Google execs have been convicted in Italy over the actions of someone posting a video - subsequently taken down - of a disabled teenager being bulied. This reflects the inability of existing order to address the technology.
We've had our own recent issues with something similar with the approach taken to Facebook, with comments from Qld Premiere Bligh and the five questions posed to Facebook by the Punch.
Meanwhile we have perfctly reasonable "moralising" about the treatment of women in Malaysia. This particular case opens up the absurdity of culturally relative enforceable moral codes, the application of Sharia law to women in Malaysia is as unacceptable as the application of tribal law to Australian indigenies.
The project for a modern secular ethics is becoming more urgent. It has to be secular because it has to apply to all geographies and all religions. It has to accept that individuals have the freedom to hld their own beliefs.
Only with a modern secular ethics can we build a global political philosophy within which a new definition of the role of the individual state can be developed.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Communications Policy
The National Broadband Network is just one facet of communications policy, but at times you'd be forgiven for thinking it is the only one.
The Australian reported last week that the NBN itself was in a mire, and that Telstra was eyeing off the prospect of again playing hard ball. That is, thinking the story is only about them deciding not to finalise negotiations to force more concessions from the Government.
In the same rag today Mark Day wonders whether our ABC needs to have its role redefined. There has been some angst both about the ABC move to a 24/7 news channel and the ABC funding of the so-called "regional hubs".
The ABC is a strange model, given that we've almost always had both whereas he US started only commercial and the UK started only public. The trick in our model is maintaining the balance. I guess the biggest shame was that the FTAs couldn't get their act in to gear on how to move the jointly owned SKY news into an FTA multi-channel.
The regional hubs are far more akin to community media that public broadcast, and are more about "digital capability building" than new "broadcast" services. It is really hard to argue against more direct community engagement, especially as almost all "local" papers are now just pat of one of three conglomerates. The hub model creates the idea that the hubs can "rip and read" ABC content but still be local.
The real question is whether anyone outside the media itself cares enough about media policy to force either party to put effort into developing one before the election?
The Australian reported last week that the NBN itself was in a mire, and that Telstra was eyeing off the prospect of again playing hard ball. That is, thinking the story is only about them deciding not to finalise negotiations to force more concessions from the Government.
In the same rag today Mark Day wonders whether our ABC needs to have its role redefined. There has been some angst both about the ABC move to a 24/7 news channel and the ABC funding of the so-called "regional hubs".
The ABC is a strange model, given that we've almost always had both whereas he US started only commercial and the UK started only public. The trick in our model is maintaining the balance. I guess the biggest shame was that the FTAs couldn't get their act in to gear on how to move the jointly owned SKY news into an FTA multi-channel.
The regional hubs are far more akin to community media that public broadcast, and are more about "digital capability building" than new "broadcast" services. It is really hard to argue against more direct community engagement, especially as almost all "local" papers are now just pat of one of three conglomerates. The hub model creates the idea that the hubs can "rip and read" ABC content but still be local.
The real question is whether anyone outside the media itself cares enough about media policy to force either party to put effort into developing one before the election?
Identity Numbers
I really feel sorry for the vast bulk of people on this planet who have no unique identifier. Due to an accident of history (well my grandfather's decision to change his surname) I have a surname that as far as I can tell is only shared by other descendents of my grandfather or those who have adopted it through relationships with members of the first group. Of that select group I'm the only David.
That doesn't happen for most people. With a world in which more and more data is capable of being stored electronically the desire to be able to efficiently retrieve it is understandable. The simplest way to do that is with "identity numbers". We now have two proposals for such beasts.
The first occurs in the context of e-health and the proposal for a national health identifier. The only way to line up the health records everywhere is with an identifying number.
Bizarrely that can't be just your Medicare number because of the earlier decision to put multiple parties (a family) on one card and hence number.
The other case is in education where the idea is to give each kid a number so that their test scores can be aligned over time as reported in the Oz and the SMH.
This, of course, raises ire in many over Big Brother. In the 80s their used to be grand fantasies on late night radio on the computer centre in the (unused) Deakin xchange being used to line up the data held on individuals across multiple data bases.
It is interesting to note that the generations more used to having to have numbers for lots of things almost yearn for a simplification, as reported in the Punch.
For health you have a Medibank number and a private health care number (if you pay), every hospital you've ever been to gave you a number when you visited.
In education you have a number for your HSC and a number for any Uni you've attended. It becomes a nightmare hen, say, you want an academic transcript and they want your number from ten years ago.
Meanwhile we decided not to have a national ID card. There was an Access Card proposal or all Social Security and like things but I don't know where that go to. We at last sorted out ABN's for all kinds of trading entities, and income earners all have unique tax file numbers.
The question becomes, if we want a unique tax number, education number and health number should they be the same? The answer is probably no. Not because of Big Brother concerns and aligning data bases. I'm sort of happy for that to happen especially for statistical data bases (how accurate could a health study be relating the incidence of health issues to education and income be huh?). Where the issue is in relation to identity theft and non-Government intrusion.
We all at least see on TV and movies how Americans use the Social Security number as the unique identifier for everything including credit checks, and just how vulnerable you can be once that is misued.
So we want some unique identifiers, but the number is greater tha one. How many should it be?
That doesn't happen for most people. With a world in which more and more data is capable of being stored electronically the desire to be able to efficiently retrieve it is understandable. The simplest way to do that is with "identity numbers". We now have two proposals for such beasts.
The first occurs in the context of e-health and the proposal for a national health identifier. The only way to line up the health records everywhere is with an identifying number.
Bizarrely that can't be just your Medicare number because of the earlier decision to put multiple parties (a family) on one card and hence number.
The other case is in education where the idea is to give each kid a number so that their test scores can be aligned over time as reported in the Oz and the SMH.
This, of course, raises ire in many over Big Brother. In the 80s their used to be grand fantasies on late night radio on the computer centre in the (unused) Deakin xchange being used to line up the data held on individuals across multiple data bases.
It is interesting to note that the generations more used to having to have numbers for lots of things almost yearn for a simplification, as reported in the Punch.
For health you have a Medibank number and a private health care number (if you pay), every hospital you've ever been to gave you a number when you visited.
In education you have a number for your HSC and a number for any Uni you've attended. It becomes a nightmare hen, say, you want an academic transcript and they want your number from ten years ago.
Meanwhile we decided not to have a national ID card. There was an Access Card proposal or all Social Security and like things but I don't know where that go to. We at last sorted out ABN's for all kinds of trading entities, and income earners all have unique tax file numbers.
The question becomes, if we want a unique tax number, education number and health number should they be the same? The answer is probably no. Not because of Big Brother concerns and aligning data bases. I'm sort of happy for that to happen especially for statistical data bases (how accurate could a health study be relating the incidence of health issues to education and income be huh?). Where the issue is in relation to identity theft and non-Government intrusion.
We all at least see on TV and movies how Americans use the Social Security number as the unique identifier for everything including credit checks, and just how vulnerable you can be once that is misued.
So we want some unique identifiers, but the number is greater tha one. How many should it be?
Thursday, February 25, 2010
NBN Co legislation
Oh dear. I thought telco policy had moved on from the days when every piece of policy was scrutinised through the lens of its implication for telco privatisation, but today it appears it is still the case that commentators only look at the implication of NBN policy from its impact on Telstra.
The Government yesterday released exposure drafts of the NBN Co legislation. Firstly that is a great step and much better than, say, the Howard Government's final Telstra privatisation Bill wich was introduced with no consultation and gave industry one day to prepare for a one day Senate hearing.
But both the Oz and the SMH report the provision in the Bill that the Minister can authorise NBN Co to sell dierectly as a threat to Telstra. The conclusion is reached because of references to Government Departments.
The reality is that, firstly, Government Departments are big customers in terms of revenue but very poor in terms of profit - simple because they have been big enough to get most of the benefits of competition that exist so far. Secondly the real concern here is that the ability to do things like e-health and e-education shouldn't be impeded by the need to deal with service providers. This isn't about Government using the NBN to connect to its premises, but to citizens.
Meanwhile I note in industry newsleter Communications Day the speculation on the fate of the other current bill, the one that does seek to split Telstra. They write in part;
The government’s desire to separate Telstra originally appeared set to split the coalition, with Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and Barnaby Joyce advocates of separation while Liberal colleagues rallied against any split. However, the Nationals are now set to vote on coalition lines with Joyce in shadow cabinet and both Senators determined to force the government to reveal numerous secret documents relating to the original NBN process. CommsDay understands that Joyce and Nash could still push for a Telstra split at a later date – but not until Conroy releases the McKinsey/KPMG NBN Implementation Study, due to be delivered to the minister by the end of the week.
I can fully understand that the new world order of the coalition prohibits them splitting on the issue. But the new world order should perhaps contemplate a change in their approach to communications policy, just as it did a change on climate change policy. As it stands today the coalition has no communications policy other than to say no, or perhaps that OPEL was better.
It is interesting to note that they never demanded an ANAO report on the cancellation of that contract. That's perhaps because they are afraid that not only will it find the Government was right to cancel it because the conditions precedent were not met, but that the ANAO would likely find that he contract should never have been entered into.
Meanwhile after the replacement of Minchin with Smith the coalition still hasn't progressed on communications policy. Conroy used to count the number of releases Minchin had come out with without a single policy proposal. Smith isn't doing any better.
Perhaps these were the kinds of people new leader Tony Abbott was addressing when he's asked them to "use their brains" at his policy roundtable on Friday. Not much chance of decent communications policy if (a) it is only Liberals, and (b) Henry Ergas is in the room.
Finally, the coalition seems to wrap themselves in a sanctimonious flag of demanding the release of certain documents prepared for advice to government. First it was the expert panel report and now it is the implementation study. In Government the coalition never released such documents. Holding Government to account means holding them to account on outcomes not second guessing the decisions.
I hope the Nationals find the courage to go to the coalition meetings and say that the cause of improved telecommunications to regional Australia is not advanced by an opposition who simply refuses to debate legislation, or opposes legislation such as structural separation (a long held National Party view) or fibre to the home (which was the core of the Page Centre report).
The Government yesterday released exposure drafts of the NBN Co legislation. Firstly that is a great step and much better than, say, the Howard Government's final Telstra privatisation Bill wich was introduced with no consultation and gave industry one day to prepare for a one day Senate hearing.
But both the Oz and the SMH report the provision in the Bill that the Minister can authorise NBN Co to sell dierectly as a threat to Telstra. The conclusion is reached because of references to Government Departments.
The reality is that, firstly, Government Departments are big customers in terms of revenue but very poor in terms of profit - simple because they have been big enough to get most of the benefits of competition that exist so far. Secondly the real concern here is that the ability to do things like e-health and e-education shouldn't be impeded by the need to deal with service providers. This isn't about Government using the NBN to connect to its premises, but to citizens.
Meanwhile I note in industry newsleter Communications Day the speculation on the fate of the other current bill, the one that does seek to split Telstra. They write in part;
The government’s desire to separate Telstra originally appeared set to split the coalition, with Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and Barnaby Joyce advocates of separation while Liberal colleagues rallied against any split. However, the Nationals are now set to vote on coalition lines with Joyce in shadow cabinet and both Senators determined to force the government to reveal numerous secret documents relating to the original NBN process. CommsDay understands that Joyce and Nash could still push for a Telstra split at a later date – but not until Conroy releases the McKinsey/KPMG NBN Implementation Study, due to be delivered to the minister by the end of the week.
I can fully understand that the new world order of the coalition prohibits them splitting on the issue. But the new world order should perhaps contemplate a change in their approach to communications policy, just as it did a change on climate change policy. As it stands today the coalition has no communications policy other than to say no, or perhaps that OPEL was better.
It is interesting to note that they never demanded an ANAO report on the cancellation of that contract. That's perhaps because they are afraid that not only will it find the Government was right to cancel it because the conditions precedent were not met, but that the ANAO would likely find that he contract should never have been entered into.
Meanwhile after the replacement of Minchin with Smith the coalition still hasn't progressed on communications policy. Conroy used to count the number of releases Minchin had come out with without a single policy proposal. Smith isn't doing any better.
Perhaps these were the kinds of people new leader Tony Abbott was addressing when he's asked them to "use their brains" at his policy roundtable on Friday. Not much chance of decent communications policy if (a) it is only Liberals, and (b) Henry Ergas is in the room.
Finally, the coalition seems to wrap themselves in a sanctimonious flag of demanding the release of certain documents prepared for advice to government. First it was the expert panel report and now it is the implementation study. In Government the coalition never released such documents. Holding Government to account means holding them to account on outcomes not second guessing the decisions.
I hope the Nationals find the courage to go to the coalition meetings and say that the cause of improved telecommunications to regional Australia is not advanced by an opposition who simply refuses to debate legislation, or opposes legislation such as structural separation (a long held National Party view) or fibre to the home (which was the core of the Page Centre report).
COAG Reform Council
I only saw a report in the AFR on the COAG response to the COAG Reform Council report National Partnership Agreement to Deliver a Seamless National Economy: Report on Performance 2008-09 .
The general feling from the reports was great disappointment on the speed all round on these reforms, which unfortunately get carried by the Government under the rubric of "de-regulation". It doesn't help that the COAG Reform Council itself is an odd beast. It seems to have been created initially by the Howard Government to report on how to reform COAG, whereas it is now operating merely to report on the progress of "reform".
In many ways the whole exercise reflects the paucity of institutional arrangements to really manage inter-governmental co-operation, and in particular the structural impediments to moving anything from a State regulatory structure to a National one. Even once harmonisation is agreed it always remains possible for one State to fracture that agreement by simply having new legislative provisions.
The creation of the Australian Consumer Law currently going through Parliament is a cse in point. This is the second time this law will be harmonised. The last time the States all enacted the same provisions in their Fair Trading Laws as appeared in Part IV of the rade Practices Act. But all of them were individually amended.
The model of the Australian Consumer Law is harder to do this to, but it can happen.
These proposals to create a "seamless national economy" really are part of the ongoing project of Federation. Federation was about two things, a free trade agreement betwee the states and a unified external affairs policy. It is just that as the means of production change, and transport and communications advance, the "boundary" conditions for what is logically a State issue in economic regulation change.
The last time we addressed issues such as this was the mid 90s with the national competition policy. The mechanism for introducing that was the National Competition Commission and a financial arrangement that notionally compensated States for economic value foregone (dividends of SOEs and more generally the rents extracted from monopoly licences) but became a system of payments for reform.
It is perhaps time to recreate the constitutional device of an Interstate Commission that should be charged with the permanent responsibility for developing a seamless national economy. Rather than a qango whose only job is reviewing progress, create a qango whose job it is to drive the process.
The general feling from the reports was great disappointment on the speed all round on these reforms, which unfortunately get carried by the Government under the rubric of "de-regulation". It doesn't help that the COAG Reform Council itself is an odd beast. It seems to have been created initially by the Howard Government to report on how to reform COAG, whereas it is now operating merely to report on the progress of "reform".
In many ways the whole exercise reflects the paucity of institutional arrangements to really manage inter-governmental co-operation, and in particular the structural impediments to moving anything from a State regulatory structure to a National one. Even once harmonisation is agreed it always remains possible for one State to fracture that agreement by simply having new legislative provisions.
The creation of the Australian Consumer Law currently going through Parliament is a cse in point. This is the second time this law will be harmonised. The last time the States all enacted the same provisions in their Fair Trading Laws as appeared in Part IV of the rade Practices Act. But all of them were individually amended.
The model of the Australian Consumer Law is harder to do this to, but it can happen.
These proposals to create a "seamless national economy" really are part of the ongoing project of Federation. Federation was about two things, a free trade agreement betwee the states and a unified external affairs policy. It is just that as the means of production change, and transport and communications advance, the "boundary" conditions for what is logically a State issue in economic regulation change.
The last time we addressed issues such as this was the mid 90s with the national competition policy. The mechanism for introducing that was the National Competition Commission and a financial arrangement that notionally compensated States for economic value foregone (dividends of SOEs and more generally the rents extracted from monopoly licences) but became a system of payments for reform.
It is perhaps time to recreate the constitutional device of an Interstate Commission that should be charged with the permanent responsibility for developing a seamless national economy. Rather than a qango whose only job is reviewing progress, create a qango whose job it is to drive the process.
The Public Service, the Future Fund and the Inter-generational issue
One of the questions Lindsay Tanner was posed on Q&A two weeks ago was a set up question on the declining value of indexed pensions. Tanner did a very good job of explaining why it was unfair on thos who'd taken lump sums to now vary the rate.
But the defined benefit scheme that is the public service scheme really is a big problem. This week saw the announcement of the retirement of Col Lyons as a Deputy Secretary at the Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy. This is a Department desperately short of experience and Col is one of the few to have a good understanding of the telco and broadcasting sides of the portfolio.
There is something weird in the superannuation scheme that encourages Public Servants to retire at 55. I think it is to do with the relatively small rate of additional increases in the final pension for any additional years of service, so the only equation left is whether the income foregone between salary and pension is greater tha the value of the leisure time gained.
Added to this is the possibility for the public servants to gain additional employment post retirement, often courtesy of the Department they have left.
Meanwhile we are being reminded in inter-generational reports that our greater life expectency and the movement of the "baby boo" bubble means the shape of the population pyramid changes and there are less labor force participants. That means, we are told, we all need to work longer.
On the flip side we have a Future Fund that isn't about funding anyone's future other than retired public servants.
Lindsay Tanner needs to get the expert who told him that he couldn't change the scheme to give him some different advice on how to change the scheme in such a way to retain public servants past 55. One suggestion that doesn't suffer from a retrospectivity problem is to change the index rate that applies to a pension depending upon how many years past 55 a public servant retires.
But there must be some other more creative ways to get the people who give advice to government that we all ned to work longer to work longer themselves!
But the defined benefit scheme that is the public service scheme really is a big problem. This week saw the announcement of the retirement of Col Lyons as a Deputy Secretary at the Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy. This is a Department desperately short of experience and Col is one of the few to have a good understanding of the telco and broadcasting sides of the portfolio.
There is something weird in the superannuation scheme that encourages Public Servants to retire at 55. I think it is to do with the relatively small rate of additional increases in the final pension for any additional years of service, so the only equation left is whether the income foregone between salary and pension is greater tha the value of the leisure time gained.
Added to this is the possibility for the public servants to gain additional employment post retirement, often courtesy of the Department they have left.
Meanwhile we are being reminded in inter-generational reports that our greater life expectency and the movement of the "baby boo" bubble means the shape of the population pyramid changes and there are less labor force participants. That means, we are told, we all need to work longer.
On the flip side we have a Future Fund that isn't about funding anyone's future other than retired public servants.
Lindsay Tanner needs to get the expert who told him that he couldn't change the scheme to give him some different advice on how to change the scheme in such a way to retain public servants past 55. One suggestion that doesn't suffer from a retrospectivity problem is to change the index rate that applies to a pension depending upon how many years past 55 a public servant retires.
But there must be some other more creative ways to get the people who give advice to government that we all ned to work longer to work longer themselves!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Q&A
Late last year Gerard Henderson noted that Q&A almost always has in its panel of five three from the left, two from the right and the not unbiased Tony Jones. Last night's episode followed the pattern. John Roskam from the IPA definitely right, Malcolm Turnbull presumably right, Mungo McCallum and Tanya Plibersek definitely left and Jane Caro trendy left.
That said it was much much better than the weird panel last week.
I haven't listened to it all, though the ABC online reports that Turnbull is still considering whether to run again. He has ruled out running under a different brand or going to State politics.
We should all hope he hangs in there. His answer at the end of the show on the homeless reflects that as an MP he is the kind of person we need in the Parliament.
Now I haven't been following the story on Peter Garrett. I don't think the Federal Government can be held directly accountable for the lives lost and homes burnt down because of the excessive rush, what does remain is the fact that enough people understood that there wasn't sufficient control of the industry to manage the risk, that the issue was with the States and the States weren't acting.
On that basis it would seem that Peter Garrett has failed in the responsibility as a Minister.
But the fascinating part on Q&A was to here the left (Mungo) saying the Government couldn't be accountable for the acts of individuals, and the right (Malcolm) suggesting that Government has to take responsibility.
Ultimately, the program probably makes a greater case for the abolition of the States than even the health issue.
That said it was much much better than the weird panel last week.
I haven't listened to it all, though the ABC online reports that Turnbull is still considering whether to run again. He has ruled out running under a different brand or going to State politics.
We should all hope he hangs in there. His answer at the end of the show on the homeless reflects that as an MP he is the kind of person we need in the Parliament.
Now I haven't been following the story on Peter Garrett. I don't think the Federal Government can be held directly accountable for the lives lost and homes burnt down because of the excessive rush, what does remain is the fact that enough people understood that there wasn't sufficient control of the industry to manage the risk, that the issue was with the States and the States weren't acting.
On that basis it would seem that Peter Garrett has failed in the responsibility as a Minister.
But the fascinating part on Q&A was to here the left (Mungo) saying the Government couldn't be accountable for the acts of individuals, and the right (Malcolm) suggesting that Government has to take responsibility.
Ultimately, the program probably makes a greater case for the abolition of the States than even the health issue.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
WiMAX again
Just a mental note to self. Two recent articles of interest on WiMAX.
The first does a comparison of the various post 3G standards. It has this nice brief description of what's different (remembering it is a US example);
Existing 3G networks, like the ones run by all the major carriers, promise download speeds in the 1-2 megabit range. That's good enough for Web surfing. But WiMAX, HSPA+, and the LTE systems that Verizon and AT&T are starting to set up are much faster—think 5, 8, 12 or even 21 megabits/second, with more to come in the future.
These aren't phone-call networks, though they'll probably make phone calls. Think of them as high-speed Internet pipes into anything you're carrying with you while you're on the move—and potentially, hopefully, competition for the cable/telephone ISP duopoly that holds a death grip on home Internet.
The story puts HSPA+ in the same bucket as WiMAX and LTE and on the criteria of the article it is probably reasonable. The articles biggest criticism of WiMAX has been the wait, and the device volumes. Both of these are now historic concerns. The real test between HSPA and WiMAX isn't their theoretic peak speeds but their performance as networks with real customers. That's something we have to wait for.
But consumers aren't just concerned about raw speed, it is the price/quality combination that counts. There are plenty of reasons to believe that WiMAX should be superior here.
The second is an update on a thesis of the convergence of LTE and WiMAX standards. Ultimately the 3G battle between the GSM and CDMA camps was resolved by a CDMA air-interface and GSM network standards.
The issue and challenge for LTE operators is their need to be an upgrade pathe for the existing voice and text suite. These are relatively high margin businesses compared to data and the business case for the migration to al IP is just as hard for a mobile operator as it is for a fixed operator.
It is in the interests of the mobile communications providers to maintain a separation between the higher margin voice market and the very different mobile computing market.
There is lots to observe.
The first does a comparison of the various post 3G standards. It has this nice brief description of what's different (remembering it is a US example);
Existing 3G networks, like the ones run by all the major carriers, promise download speeds in the 1-2 megabit range. That's good enough for Web surfing. But WiMAX, HSPA+, and the LTE systems that Verizon and AT&T are starting to set up are much faster—think 5, 8, 12 or even 21 megabits/second, with more to come in the future.
These aren't phone-call networks, though they'll probably make phone calls. Think of them as high-speed Internet pipes into anything you're carrying with you while you're on the move—and potentially, hopefully, competition for the cable/telephone ISP duopoly that holds a death grip on home Internet.
The story puts HSPA+ in the same bucket as WiMAX and LTE and on the criteria of the article it is probably reasonable. The articles biggest criticism of WiMAX has been the wait, and the device volumes. Both of these are now historic concerns. The real test between HSPA and WiMAX isn't their theoretic peak speeds but their performance as networks with real customers. That's something we have to wait for.
But consumers aren't just concerned about raw speed, it is the price/quality combination that counts. There are plenty of reasons to believe that WiMAX should be superior here.
The second is an update on a thesis of the convergence of LTE and WiMAX standards. Ultimately the 3G battle between the GSM and CDMA camps was resolved by a CDMA air-interface and GSM network standards.
The issue and challenge for LTE operators is their need to be an upgrade pathe for the existing voice and text suite. These are relatively high margin businesses compared to data and the business case for the migration to al IP is just as hard for a mobile operator as it is for a fixed operator.
It is in the interests of the mobile communications providers to maintain a separation between the higher margin voice market and the very different mobile computing market.
There is lots to observe.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Sydney men eat mustard
The University of Sydney is giving its logo a spring clean as reported in the SMH today.
Anyone familiar with logos would know that even things as old and venerable as the Coca-Cola logo go through regular refreshes. And at least Sydney is sticking with the basic form of the shield - unlike Macquarie University which ditched its logo based on the Macquarie Lighthouse for three blobs a bit like BHP Billiton.
Sydney has also dropped the Latin motto for most uses - but it will still be on testamur's. I've been wondering what Macquarie testamur's look like with the blobs (I have one from each Uni). The explanation given is that the logo is too detailed for faithful rendering on line - which sort of makes sense.
Anyway the latin motto is "sidere mens eadem mutato". It isn't really very clear. Most literally it is something like "the starts my change we remain the same" which the SMH notes is "a reference to Sydney following the traditions of universities in the northern hemisphere."
But I always preferred the version of Bill O'Neill, a psychologist who was a Deputy Vice-Chancellor of the University.
Sydney men eat mustard
Anyone familiar with logos would know that even things as old and venerable as the Coca-Cola logo go through regular refreshes. And at least Sydney is sticking with the basic form of the shield - unlike Macquarie University which ditched its logo based on the Macquarie Lighthouse for three blobs a bit like BHP Billiton.
Sydney has also dropped the Latin motto for most uses - but it will still be on testamur's. I've been wondering what Macquarie testamur's look like with the blobs (I have one from each Uni). The explanation given is that the logo is too detailed for faithful rendering on line - which sort of makes sense.
Anyway the latin motto is "sidere mens eadem mutato". It isn't really very clear. Most literally it is something like "the starts my change we remain the same" which the SMH notes is "a reference to Sydney following the traditions of universities in the northern hemisphere."
But I always preferred the version of Bill O'Neill, a psychologist who was a Deputy Vice-Chancellor of the University.
Sydney men eat mustard
A couple of howlers
If one was into conspiracy theories one would think News Ltd has decided to target Stephen Conroy, possibly because News/FOXTEL isn't getting the easy ride in the lobbying stakes it might hope for. But that is no excuse for inaccuracy.
Today Peter Van Onselen has written in the Oz that Conroy should go because of "multiple failures". One of the targeted events is the appointment of Mike Kaiser who the writer claims "had successfully lobbied for the [NBNCo]'s head office to be located in Queensland". That's news to all those employees in Sydney and Melbourne, and indeed conflicts with Hansard from the Estimates hearing where the appointment was discussed where NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley states that "We have not got head offices." He goes o to outline how they are just recruiting staff to work in Sydney and Melbourne according to where the talent is (which is how Telstra and Optus at least have worked for some time).
The Kaiser appointment is being over analysed. It was Conroy himself who advised the Committee that he had suggested to Quigley that Kaiser would be qualified. Nothing in the rest of the evidence suggests that the decision was otherwise influenced by the Minister - he was simply a referral. Kaiser did not conceal any part of his past. His salary is determined in accordance with standard HR job grading activities.
Personally I wouldn't have made the choice if I was Quigley, because of the political risk. But equally this job is actually about talking to the States not the Commonwealth, and Kaiser as a former Premier's chief of Staff in both Qld and NSW is extremely well qualified for that.
Meanwhile the Telegraph has tried to make something of the move by Conroy's media adviser Tim Marshall to Alcatel-Lucent. The article forgets to mention that Tim is extremely well qualified for this role, he wasn't a party hack turned staffer, but a respected communications journalist who was prebviously editor of Communications Day. His successor in that role, Luke Coleman, has just made a similar move to Tim, but to Huawei.
The lobbying code of conduct doesn't prohibit former staffers from moving into industry, only from "lobbying activities". Tim isn't joining Alcatel-Lucent as a lobbyist, but as a mrketing and communications manager.
Updated I note that the ABC reports this as a potential breach of the "ministerial code of conduct" which is a document I can't seem to find. I can however find the Code of Conduct for Ministerial Staff. Once again, no breach!
Returning to the Oz article we are invited to see something underhandi the Conroy/Stokes meeting in Colorado. There might be an issue if there was a suggestion of payment, but there isn't. As Lindsay Tanner said they it happened they were going to be in the same place at the same time and they arranged to see each other. The Australian public and Seven shareholders should be pleased that both of them seemed prepared to work on their holidays. As indeed each should be pleased that these two men talk. The Minister is informed on industry issues, the Seven CEO spends his time doing it.
That does't mean this is Conroy's only input. After all he has established and funded the Australian Communications Consumers Action Network (ACCAN) which has already been a vocal critique of Goverment policy, and is also consulted with by the Minister.
As an aside - the Hansard is only Proof but includes this delightful line. Senator FISHER—Minister, I will go back to Mr Quigley. You can run your interference and I will stop talking to you. I had better put my mouth back in my mug; that might be a better place for it.
I want to see a mouth i a mug!
Disclaimer. I am employed by a Seven company. My views in this blog post are my own. Their intention is to comment on the quality of the reporting as such, not to attempt to defend anyone's particular actions.
Today Peter Van Onselen has written in the Oz that Conroy should go because of "multiple failures". One of the targeted events is the appointment of Mike Kaiser who the writer claims "had successfully lobbied for the [NBNCo]'s head office to be located in Queensland". That's news to all those employees in Sydney and Melbourne, and indeed conflicts with Hansard from the Estimates hearing where the appointment was discussed where NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley states that "We have not got head offices." He goes o to outline how they are just recruiting staff to work in Sydney and Melbourne according to where the talent is (which is how Telstra and Optus at least have worked for some time).
The Kaiser appointment is being over analysed. It was Conroy himself who advised the Committee that he had suggested to Quigley that Kaiser would be qualified. Nothing in the rest of the evidence suggests that the decision was otherwise influenced by the Minister - he was simply a referral. Kaiser did not conceal any part of his past. His salary is determined in accordance with standard HR job grading activities.
Personally I wouldn't have made the choice if I was Quigley, because of the political risk. But equally this job is actually about talking to the States not the Commonwealth, and Kaiser as a former Premier's chief of Staff in both Qld and NSW is extremely well qualified for that.
Meanwhile the Telegraph has tried to make something of the move by Conroy's media adviser Tim Marshall to Alcatel-Lucent. The article forgets to mention that Tim is extremely well qualified for this role, he wasn't a party hack turned staffer, but a respected communications journalist who was prebviously editor of Communications Day. His successor in that role, Luke Coleman, has just made a similar move to Tim, but to Huawei.
The lobbying code of conduct doesn't prohibit former staffers from moving into industry, only from "lobbying activities". Tim isn't joining Alcatel-Lucent as a lobbyist, but as a mrketing and communications manager.
Updated I note that the ABC reports this as a potential breach of the "ministerial code of conduct" which is a document I can't seem to find. I can however find the Code of Conduct for Ministerial Staff. Once again, no breach!
Returning to the Oz article we are invited to see something underhandi the Conroy/Stokes meeting in Colorado. There might be an issue if there was a suggestion of payment, but there isn't. As Lindsay Tanner said they it happened they were going to be in the same place at the same time and they arranged to see each other. The Australian public and Seven shareholders should be pleased that both of them seemed prepared to work on their holidays. As indeed each should be pleased that these two men talk. The Minister is informed on industry issues, the Seven CEO spends his time doing it.
That does't mean this is Conroy's only input. After all he has established and funded the Australian Communications Consumers Action Network (ACCAN) which has already been a vocal critique of Goverment policy, and is also consulted with by the Minister.
As an aside - the Hansard is only Proof but includes this delightful line. Senator FISHER—Minister, I will go back to Mr Quigley. You can run your interference and I will stop talking to you. I had better put my mouth back in my mug; that might be a better place for it.
I want to see a mouth i a mug!
Disclaimer. I am employed by a Seven company. My views in this blog post are my own. Their intention is to comment on the quality of the reporting as such, not to attempt to defend anyone's particular actions.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Tanner and Joyce on Q&A
I only caught up with Q&A online today.
A couple of standouts.
Barnaby Joyce referring to the "cyclical angel descending from heaven and making everything better." It elicited a stiffled "what the?" from Lindsay Tanner - but did reflect the ways that Barnaby can conjure with language to create memorable images.
An interesting answer by Lindsay Tanner to a question on flat rate tax. The questioner was running the line that a flat tax was better because our higher tax rates on higher incomes act as a disincentive to further effort.
Lindsay's reply was that he saw no evidence that at the higher brackets the financial return was necessarily the primary incentive. Actually, he could take the incentive argument further. In theory at least a person who has $1 will value an extra $1 more than a person who has $100 will value an extra $1. If there were merit in the incentive argument you wouldn't chose a flat tax, you'd choose a regressive (as opposed to a progressive) tax.
We do know that the "other Henry" tax review (by Henry Ergas) that got buried in Malcolm Turnbull's office did propose a flat tax. That will create some amusement.
A couple of standouts.
Barnaby Joyce referring to the "cyclical angel descending from heaven and making everything better." It elicited a stiffled "what the?" from Lindsay Tanner - but did reflect the ways that Barnaby can conjure with language to create memorable images.
An interesting answer by Lindsay Tanner to a question on flat rate tax. The questioner was running the line that a flat tax was better because our higher tax rates on higher incomes act as a disincentive to further effort.
Lindsay's reply was that he saw no evidence that at the higher brackets the financial return was necessarily the primary incentive. Actually, he could take the incentive argument further. In theory at least a person who has $1 will value an extra $1 more than a person who has $100 will value an extra $1. If there were merit in the incentive argument you wouldn't chose a flat tax, you'd choose a regressive (as opposed to a progressive) tax.
We do know that the "other Henry" tax review (by Henry Ergas) that got buried in Malcolm Turnbull's office did propose a flat tax. That will create some amusement.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
This week in politics 2
This week has already not disappointed. I foreshadowed yesterday that eventually the Government would explain why an ETS was the preferred approach.
Then yesterday in the Parliament Malcolm Turnbull delivered a speech (at page 6) that was described in the Oz as an excellent speech delivered too late.
In making the case for an ETS Turnbul said;
But, given we have an apparent bipartisan agreement that emissions should be reduced by five per cent of 2000 levels by 2020, is an emissions trading scheme, this CPRS, at a general level the best policy to achieve the desired outcome? Believing as I do, as a Liberal, that market forces deliver the lowest cost and most effective solution to economic challenges, the answer must be yes.
He continued;
These changes have made it into a scheme that appropriately balances environmental effectiveness and economic responsibility. In fact, the proposed scheme very closely resembles the outline of the Howard government’s original 2007 proposal, in both its incidence and its timing. As we have seen in recent days, alternatives such as direct regulation or subsidies will be far more costly to the economy, no matter how hard their designers seek to argue the contrary.
And concluded;
The proposed ETS is a balanced, substantive and timely step forward on an issue of immense importance. By relying so heavily on market forces to address this very severe challenging problem, the ETS is far more in the great traditions of modern liberalism than any other available policy response. After all, I have always believed that Liberals reject the idea that government knows best and embrace the idea that government’s job is to enable each of us to do our best. This ETS allows Australian businesses to make their own decisions as to how to reduce their emissions. Government sets the rules and, in particular, sets the cap on total emissions and then lets the market work out the most efficient and effective outcome. Schemes where bureaucrats and politicians pick technologies and winners, doling out billions of taxpayers’ dollars, neither are economically efficient nor will be environmentally effective. For those reasons, I will be voting in favour of this legislation.
I think the only point he failed to mention is that a market mechanis eventually allows for global trading in the right to emit - so that eventually where, for example, the fossil fuel is burnt is irrelevant. That is, the decisio on where to burn Australian coal is not determined by a country's own targets but by the global target.
Meanwhile the rest of the commentariat in berating spin only asseses spin. I didn't watch all of Q&A - I find the format sometimes really hard to bear. But I don't think the kids caned the PM. In fact, I don't think that is what the audience thought it was doing.
I pose an alternative view. Would the ABC have been able to fill the same room with as many young people to engage the previous PM? Probably not.
Malcolm Colless writing in the Oz has returned to the theme that the PM is a micro-manager who isn't getting the right kind of strong advice from his office. I never thought I'd see the day where a member o the fourth estate was suggesting a PM needed to employ more thuglike characters such as Richo or Peter Barron.
But you see this is still a journalist who criticises the PM as not having substance but thinks the solution is in how you spin it;
Rudd clearly feels that there is a lack of appreciation in the community of the hard yards that his government has covered through daunting times such as the global financial crisis. But in difficult times the electorate is driven very much by hip-pocket issues. The spike in his ratings after he doled out mega-millions in goodwill cheques proved that. But the value from this gesture has quickly dissipated in the face of inflation-driven rises in interest rates and the consequent cost of living. No wonder his tax-based emissions trading scheme spooked the electorate.
All of this underlines the need for a new direction in Rudd's strategy for communicating with the electorate as he leads Labor to this year's poll. He is quick to remind the community that he is up to making the tough and sometimes politically unpalatable decisions that are necessary to make Australia a better place.
It is really easy to make an accusation that the Government doesn't make tough decisions, and then decide to interpret the stimulus plans and other GFC responses as anything other than tough.
I sometimes wonder whether our working press now dislike Kevin Rudd for the same reason they disliked John Howard. That is their determination as PM to try to talk directly to the people rather than through the mediation of the press.
If the press were to start doing decent policy analysis rather than reporting politics as a horse race or celebrity then Prime Ministers might again take them seriously.
The greatest irony of the demise of Malcolm Turnbull is that it was all reported as about the horse race, about winning leasership and winning elections. As I've previously noted losing the Liberal leadership was probably in the long run a good thing for both Turnbull and the Liberal party.
He certainly showed yesterday not only his quality, but why he is appropriately a member of the Liberal Party rather than the ALP. The question is what the rest of the Liberal Party thinks they stand for?
Then yesterday in the Parliament Malcolm Turnbull delivered a speech (at page 6) that was described in the Oz as an excellent speech delivered too late.
In making the case for an ETS Turnbul said;
But, given we have an apparent bipartisan agreement that emissions should be reduced by five per cent of 2000 levels by 2020, is an emissions trading scheme, this CPRS, at a general level the best policy to achieve the desired outcome? Believing as I do, as a Liberal, that market forces deliver the lowest cost and most effective solution to economic challenges, the answer must be yes.
He continued;
These changes have made it into a scheme that appropriately balances environmental effectiveness and economic responsibility. In fact, the proposed scheme very closely resembles the outline of the Howard government’s original 2007 proposal, in both its incidence and its timing. As we have seen in recent days, alternatives such as direct regulation or subsidies will be far more costly to the economy, no matter how hard their designers seek to argue the contrary.
And concluded;
The proposed ETS is a balanced, substantive and timely step forward on an issue of immense importance. By relying so heavily on market forces to address this very severe challenging problem, the ETS is far more in the great traditions of modern liberalism than any other available policy response. After all, I have always believed that Liberals reject the idea that government knows best and embrace the idea that government’s job is to enable each of us to do our best. This ETS allows Australian businesses to make their own decisions as to how to reduce their emissions. Government sets the rules and, in particular, sets the cap on total emissions and then lets the market work out the most efficient and effective outcome. Schemes where bureaucrats and politicians pick technologies and winners, doling out billions of taxpayers’ dollars, neither are economically efficient nor will be environmentally effective. For those reasons, I will be voting in favour of this legislation.
I think the only point he failed to mention is that a market mechanis eventually allows for global trading in the right to emit - so that eventually where, for example, the fossil fuel is burnt is irrelevant. That is, the decisio on where to burn Australian coal is not determined by a country's own targets but by the global target.
Meanwhile the rest of the commentariat in berating spin only asseses spin. I didn't watch all of Q&A - I find the format sometimes really hard to bear. But I don't think the kids caned the PM. In fact, I don't think that is what the audience thought it was doing.
I pose an alternative view. Would the ABC have been able to fill the same room with as many young people to engage the previous PM? Probably not.
Malcolm Colless writing in the Oz has returned to the theme that the PM is a micro-manager who isn't getting the right kind of strong advice from his office. I never thought I'd see the day where a member o the fourth estate was suggesting a PM needed to employ more thuglike characters such as Richo or Peter Barron.
But you see this is still a journalist who criticises the PM as not having substance but thinks the solution is in how you spin it;
Rudd clearly feels that there is a lack of appreciation in the community of the hard yards that his government has covered through daunting times such as the global financial crisis. But in difficult times the electorate is driven very much by hip-pocket issues. The spike in his ratings after he doled out mega-millions in goodwill cheques proved that. But the value from this gesture has quickly dissipated in the face of inflation-driven rises in interest rates and the consequent cost of living. No wonder his tax-based emissions trading scheme spooked the electorate.
All of this underlines the need for a new direction in Rudd's strategy for communicating with the electorate as he leads Labor to this year's poll. He is quick to remind the community that he is up to making the tough and sometimes politically unpalatable decisions that are necessary to make Australia a better place.
It is really easy to make an accusation that the Government doesn't make tough decisions, and then decide to interpret the stimulus plans and other GFC responses as anything other than tough.
I sometimes wonder whether our working press now dislike Kevin Rudd for the same reason they disliked John Howard. That is their determination as PM to try to talk directly to the people rather than through the mediation of the press.
If the press were to start doing decent policy analysis rather than reporting politics as a horse race or celebrity then Prime Ministers might again take them seriously.
The greatest irony of the demise of Malcolm Turnbull is that it was all reported as about the horse race, about winning leasership and winning elections. As I've previously noted losing the Liberal leadership was probably in the long run a good thing for both Turnbull and the Liberal party.
He certainly showed yesterday not only his quality, but why he is appropriately a member of the Liberal Party rather than the ALP. The question is what the rest of the Liberal Party thinks they stand for?
Monday, February 08, 2010
Sarah Pallin at the Tea Party
Sarah Pallin waxed lyrical in her Tea Party speech on the wonders of the "competitive primary." I think there are lots of Republicans who wish they'd had a competitive process to choose the VP candidate!
You've probably heard all the good lines...there are a number of conservative classics like just putting down the President as "A charismatic guy with a teleprompter".
It is fascinating that Pallin like others over-calls the significance of Massachusetts. This was a very classic by-election outcome where the supporters of the incumbent didn't realise they'd need to vote.
The Pallin speech was addressed to the Tea Party but was a lot about national security wanting tough sanctions - clear Foreign Policy that reflects democracy. This is really at odds with classic Tea Party members who are the kind of US isolationists who normally don't want to go to war elsewhere.
She invokes concerns with not caring for the constitution - but then rants about Government bailing out corporates and calling the recovery "crony capitalism". Yet she doesn't think the constitutional protection of rights should aply to foreigners.
And I've only watched the first twenty minutes so far!
"
You've probably heard all the good lines...there are a number of conservative classics like just putting down the President as "A charismatic guy with a teleprompter".
It is fascinating that Pallin like others over-calls the significance of Massachusetts. This was a very classic by-election outcome where the supporters of the incumbent didn't realise they'd need to vote.
The Pallin speech was addressed to the Tea Party but was a lot about national security wanting tough sanctions - clear Foreign Policy that reflects democracy. This is really at odds with classic Tea Party members who are the kind of US isolationists who normally don't want to go to war elsewhere.
She invokes concerns with not caring for the constitution - but then rants about Government bailing out corporates and calling the recovery "crony capitalism". Yet she doesn't think the constitutional protection of rights should aply to foreigners.
And I've only watched the first twenty minutes so far!
"
This week in politics
Politics across Australia have got very interesting, not least due to the number of impending State elections, and of course a forthcoming Federal election.
While some of the news has been about the way the conservatives (both parliamentary and extra-parliamentary) have clawed back territory on the climate change debate, I personally see it as transitory at best. The success is based on two things. The first is the damage being done to the "science", which I've noted before comes more from people over-stating the case for "science proves" rather than "the more convincing scientific argument is".
The second is the transitory appeal of spending our way out of the problem rather than putting a price on carbon (which is sold as a great new tax).
Eventually the public will understand the difference between a Government action that changes price relativities and an actual tax. More importantly the Government will eventually successfully explain that the benefit of an ETS is that you can eventually do international trades on emission rights. It was, after all, the conservatives who promoted the idea that unilateral action was pointless (we only have one atmosphere) - yet they are the ones with the most unilateral policy!
But far more interesting is what is going on inside the Liberal Party. Glen Milne reports that following the leadership change in the Liberals there are now two groups prortraying themselves as "the right", those who organised the coup and another group whose claim stems from their christian conservative values. This divide marries up with the brawl in NSW in which Abbott is reported to have defended David Clarke.
We are offered the tantalizing view that the Liberals have got over their right v moderates fight only to have a right v right battle.
In the midst of this we are told the ALP is targeting leading Liberal moderate Chris Pyne's Sturt as a winnable seat in the election. And we have Tony Abbott trying to defend Barnaby Joyce by telling us that Barnaby could be a new Black Jack McEwen.
The latter news shoul terrify all his Liberal colleagues as McEwen is the individual most credited with holding back the Australian economy from domestic and inernational competition in the 60s and 70s. The inclusion of Doug Anthony in the list does little to make one feel better, as he totally continued the traditio in the late 70s and early 80s.
It is, of course, really what parties in opposition need to do. They need to have a near Darwiniam fight within themselves to determine their policies and leadership. But all too often it is reduced to fighting over the spolis of opposition (such as entitlement to promotion as a shadow), false claims of some kind of group structure (non-factions) instead of the truly hard yards of what you stand for.
It is hard to get any senseyet of what the new conservaive face of the coalition stands for. They are clearly going to keep targeting the deficit, and interest rate rises if they can. But the average Australian does understand that we dodged a bullet - through the combination of thirty years of exceptional Government and early and decussive action in this particular case.
It will be interesting to see if Estimates results in any better targeted attacks.
While some of the news has been about the way the conservatives (both parliamentary and extra-parliamentary) have clawed back territory on the climate change debate, I personally see it as transitory at best. The success is based on two things. The first is the damage being done to the "science", which I've noted before comes more from people over-stating the case for "science proves" rather than "the more convincing scientific argument is".
The second is the transitory appeal of spending our way out of the problem rather than putting a price on carbon (which is sold as a great new tax).
Eventually the public will understand the difference between a Government action that changes price relativities and an actual tax. More importantly the Government will eventually successfully explain that the benefit of an ETS is that you can eventually do international trades on emission rights. It was, after all, the conservatives who promoted the idea that unilateral action was pointless (we only have one atmosphere) - yet they are the ones with the most unilateral policy!
But far more interesting is what is going on inside the Liberal Party. Glen Milne reports that following the leadership change in the Liberals there are now two groups prortraying themselves as "the right", those who organised the coup and another group whose claim stems from their christian conservative values. This divide marries up with the brawl in NSW in which Abbott is reported to have defended David Clarke.
We are offered the tantalizing view that the Liberals have got over their right v moderates fight only to have a right v right battle.
In the midst of this we are told the ALP is targeting leading Liberal moderate Chris Pyne's Sturt as a winnable seat in the election. And we have Tony Abbott trying to defend Barnaby Joyce by telling us that Barnaby could be a new Black Jack McEwen.
The latter news shoul terrify all his Liberal colleagues as McEwen is the individual most credited with holding back the Australian economy from domestic and inernational competition in the 60s and 70s. The inclusion of Doug Anthony in the list does little to make one feel better, as he totally continued the traditio in the late 70s and early 80s.
It is, of course, really what parties in opposition need to do. They need to have a near Darwiniam fight within themselves to determine their policies and leadership. But all too often it is reduced to fighting over the spolis of opposition (such as entitlement to promotion as a shadow), false claims of some kind of group structure (non-factions) instead of the truly hard yards of what you stand for.
It is hard to get any senseyet of what the new conservaive face of the coalition stands for. They are clearly going to keep targeting the deficit, and interest rate rises if they can. But the average Australian does understand that we dodged a bullet - through the combination of thirty years of exceptional Government and early and decussive action in this particular case.
It will be interesting to see if Estimates results in any better targeted attacks.
Friday, February 05, 2010
The ANAO report again
I suggested yesterday that the Liberals will find no joy in the ANAO report on the NBN.
I neglected to mention the spin that some such as Stephen Bartholomuesz put on this that the report detailed a "$30M failure". The figure includes the costs of industry to respond, not just the costs to Governmenment.
Meanwhile the ANAO report criticised the NBN process for being a one step rather than two step process, going straight to RFP withut an intermediate RFI. It could be argued that the first process really ended up just being the RFI from which NBN 2.0 was built.
But getting too stuck in to Conroy will be hard given the ANAO has also just reported that the former PM awarded $100M in water projects against departmental advice.
Meanwhile Conroy's defence at a personal level has been detailed in today's Oz, which outlines in a bit more detail the battle between the Minister and his Department.
This continued a duel begun when Senator Conroy was opposition spokesman on telecommunications and highly critical of the department and its head. From the beginning, he knew the department's tender process was flawed, and he was as frustrated by its failings as those attempting to bid for the right to build the relatively modest fibre-to-the-node system.
But his complaints and attempts to change the process were overruled by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and its acting secretary, Jenny Goddard, Scott's partner.
Estimates next week will indeed be interesting! If I were the coalition I'd change tactics. I'd get out of the way on the NBN - at the moment they are the excuse for the Government. "We haven't been able to proceed any faster because of obstruction by the coalition in passing enabling legislation". The infamous Senate order on not debating NBn legislation until the expert panel report from NBN 1.0 is released is technically the touch point.
I neglected to mention the spin that some such as Stephen Bartholomuesz put on this that the report detailed a "$30M failure". The figure includes the costs of industry to respond, not just the costs to Governmenment.
Meanwhile the ANAO report criticised the NBN process for being a one step rather than two step process, going straight to RFP withut an intermediate RFI. It could be argued that the first process really ended up just being the RFI from which NBN 2.0 was built.
But getting too stuck in to Conroy will be hard given the ANAO has also just reported that the former PM awarded $100M in water projects against departmental advice.
Meanwhile Conroy's defence at a personal level has been detailed in today's Oz, which outlines in a bit more detail the battle between the Minister and his Department.
This continued a duel begun when Senator Conroy was opposition spokesman on telecommunications and highly critical of the department and its head. From the beginning, he knew the department's tender process was flawed, and he was as frustrated by its failings as those attempting to bid for the right to build the relatively modest fibre-to-the-node system.
But his complaints and attempts to change the process were overruled by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and its acting secretary, Jenny Goddard, Scott's partner.
Estimates next week will indeed be interesting! If I were the coalition I'd change tactics. I'd get out of the way on the NBN - at the moment they are the excuse for the Government. "We haven't been able to proceed any faster because of obstruction by the coalition in passing enabling legislation". The infamous Senate order on not debating NBn legislation until the expert panel report from NBN 1.0 is released is technically the touch point.
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