Monday, February 23, 2015

National Security

It is with some trepidation that I comment on the Prime Minister's National Security Statement this morning, but I feel I cannot let it pass.

Let me first just comment on the timing and style of the announcement. When commenting after surviving the spill motion Mr Abbott said "I suppose last year I was so focused on economic security issues, on national security issues, that I didn't have enough time to talk to my colleagues." But just to be sure he didn't take all the blame he sacked Phillip Ruddock as Chief whip - and went straight back to worrying about national security.

When Mr Abbott last made a National Security Statement it was in Parliament in September last year. His central theme then was "On questions of national security, it’s always best if government and opposition can stand together, shoulder to shoulder."

Today he made his announcement surrounded by security agencies and not in Parliament. His earlier letter to Labor leader Bill Shorten on data retention had been labelled by the recipient as "seeking to politicise the process for bringing in anti-terrorism laws."

Today's statement left no doubt about that. It called on the Senate once to pass legislation and support for data retention (without addressing any of the Labor and community concerns) and changes to citizenship laws.

But let's analyse some of the elements. Of the "terrorist threat rising" we are told "We have seen the beheadings, the mass executions, the crucifixions and the sexual slavery in the name of religion."  I will take Mr Abbott seriously when he addresses Saudi Arabia about beheadings for sorcery, when he treats every mass execution everywhere in the world with the same revulsion not just those by IS.

He said "We have seen the tactics of terrorists evolve...Now, in addition to the larger scale, more complex plots that typified the post 9/11 world, such as the atrocities in Bali and London, sick individuals are acting on the caliphate’s instruction to seize people at random and kill them. These lone actor attacks are not new, but they pose a unique set of problems." But nowhere does he address the actual question of scale - or proportionality. Lone actor attacks are still almost as scarce as the large scale attacks were - only with far less victims. This is what victory looks like, not defeat.

On proportionality I note that on average one woman a week dies in Australia as a result of domestic violence. But his response is to put domestic violence on the COAG agenda.

Mr Abbott in his speech noted "All too often, alienated and unhappy people brood quietly." But his response is to ensure adequate policing once these youths have become radicalised and threats. Wouldn't it make more sense to wonder why they are alienated and unhappy?

One of the reasons is economic disadvantage. One of the causes of that is that not all households make the assumptions about the value of education that we assume.

Part of the attention of the Gonski funding formula is to recognise that you need more school resources where you do not have family support (whether by inclination or capacity) of education.

Unsurprisingly, domestic violence contains some common elements.

Perhaps it is time we asked ourselves how and why we are failing so many young Australians.

The Liberal philosophy that 'you are on your own' is part of the problem. Labor, and old style Christian, values of 'we are all in this together' demand action.

Finally Mr Abbott said "For a long time, successive governments have been concerned about organisations that breed hatred, and sometimes incite violence. " This is not true. There are many Christian groups breed hatred against honest law-abiding Muslims. That includes the Rev Fred Nile and the Christian Democrats.

It is time the Prime Minister woke up to the fact that the issue is not just Islamic theocracy, it is theocracy of any kind. There should not be a Christian Prayer said at the commencement of Parliament. Religious names should be prohibited for political parties.

We need to place religious tolerance for all religions that respect it, and maintain a strong secular state.

But Mr Abbott - as is his natural instinct - is just trying to play politics.

Please like my campaign Facebook Page

Sunday, February 01, 2015

Election timing

The turmoil in the Australian Government at the moment has people talking about an election as an option. They need to get a grip.

Firstly a double dissolution isn't currently an option, as no legislation has been twice rejected with three months in between as required by the constitution as a trigger. Indeed, and oddly, Chris Pyne decided to reintroduce his university reforms rather than set them up as a trigger.

We then get to the timing of an election. A House of Reps election can be called at any time. One must be called within ten days of the term of the house expiring, which it does three years after it first met after the last election. The house met on 12 November 2013, so election needs to be called by 22 November. If it was called that late we'd be voting on Christmas Day.

But to keep the house elections aligned the timing of Senate elections comes into play. A Senate election cannot be held more than twelve months before the term of the Senators expires, which is 30 June 2017! So a combined Senate and HoR election is only possible in the window between 1 July 2016 and the requisite period (I think 42 days) after 22 November. My money in on some time in October or November 2016.

Of course, were the PM crazy brave and decide to go for an HoR only NOW he could wait much closer to 30 June 2017 and have simultaneous elections. That would have been a great strategy now if he was facing Senate obstruction AND was leading in the polls. It wouldn't unblock the senate but would set up a great 2017 strategy.

Who knows ... Maybe he will convince himself that an election would focus the electorates mind.