In many ways politics is defined by the different views on how each of these should be viewed.
Events over recent weeks provide a platform for examining some of these issues. The Russian invasion of Ukraine commencing on 24 Fenruary raises important questions about national and economic security. The flood events in South East Queensland and Eastern NSW starting on 28 February raise important issues about personal and social security. This post is going to focus on the inter-relationships between the four securities.
The far away events in Eastern Europe are already having a dramatic impact on Australia. As outlined in an excellent article by my friend Claire Connelly in The Saturday Paper today, the application of economic sanctions against Russia, including on oil and gas exports, is driving up global prices. Claire makes the point that the impact would be less if we had already transitioned to more renewable fuel resources.
Others have questioned the wisdom of Western Europe of becoming so reliant on Russian energy exports. This line of thinking misses the point that beyond the traditional fields of military force and diplomacy as means of providing national security, the world since 1945 has grown increasingly reliant on economic integration as a means of preserving peace. The West's response to Russia of imposing economic sanctions is slower acting, but ultimately far more effective than military intervention. The cost to Western Europe of some necessary economic adjustment is far less than the cost if a military conflict escalated to cover more territory than Ukraine.
Ultimately Putin's strategy is based on the belief that once he has secured Ukraine, the West will move on. But that won't be the case. Even Chamberlain only agreed to the German accession of the Sudetenland because he wanted to delay the ultimate war, not because he thought he could avoid it. Putin has been too clear that his ambition doesn't end with Ukraine.
The second lesson from this is that traditional defence forces are less important than they once were. A related lesson has been the demonstration of how unmanned weapons make some manned weapons obselete. Ever since John Monash first developed a battle plan that made tanks effective for the battle of Hamel, the tank has been the essential core of land warfare. The Ukrainians have thus far demonstrated how exposed they are to drone strike. It won't be long before the reverse will be shown - that drone cover will be more effective for supporting advancing infactry than tanks or armed personnel carriers.
The floods have again exposed the fragility of any nation in the face of extreme weather events. These events are expected to become more frequent and more severe as the climate continues to change as a result of greenhouse gasses. The floods first impact has been on personal security - with 22 deaths and much loss of property already resulting. And it throws many of these citizens back onto relying on the social security system, especially the need for housing.
A core part of commentary has been about how quickly the Australian Defence Force can be delpoyed in these circumstances, and on how much support it is reasonable to expect from them. Former General Peter Cosgrave today weighed into the debate and suggested that we shouldn't rely on the ADF, but should create a paid part-time civil defence force based on the model of the defence force reserve.
There are two fundamental flaws in the Cosgrave solution. The first is the simple labour economics question of what group of people are going to be making a time re-allocation to engage in this paid part-time civil defence force. The two primary groups would be volunteer effort shifting to paid work - SES volunteers becoming part-time civl defence employees. That would add cost but not resources. The second group would be ADF part-timers moving to the relatively more safe occupation of civil-defence part-timers.
The second and more significant flaw is to not understand the nature of national security. For Australia, there is already a 'war' of kinds being played out in the Pacific and South East Asia between China and the West on who provides support and assistance to these countries, including the security challenges they face. The first is the ongoing challenge of economic security, or development, in building a strong and sustainable economy to deliver material wellbeing. The second is the growing challende of adapting to climate change.
One of the ways Australia has historically helped these nations is the use of our defence forces in various 'relief' efforts. Apart from being conducted remotely from our nation, these tasks are little different to the tasks we need in the face of such emergencies. These include clean-up operations, temporary housing, essential supplies including clean water, and potentially temporary health faclities. Added to these are simple engineering works of fabricating temporary roads, wharfs and bridges, and reestablishing communications.
These tasks are, however, also tasks that need to be performed in support of military defence activities. Unfortunately, the focus of military planners has been excessively on weapons platforms and special forces. The perception has been that tasks for which infantry manpower are required can be rapidly fabricated and added to force strength on an as needed basis.
The Ukranian war and our own natural disasters reflect the error in that thinking. Infantry supported by 'light' intelligent weapons are essential in a ground war; they can combat the weapons and tactics of the 20th century. Natural disasters increasing in intensity and frequency require greater manpower support that utilises skills we need to deploy in assistance through our region.
Personally I have long argued that being an open trading economy has been Australia's best defence strategy. None of the countries with whom we trade would be prepared to sit back and watch another country attempt to secure these resources by force. Central to that has been our sale of energy resources, that is coal and gas.
The importance of energy resources dictated the conduct of World War II. When Germany eventually declared war on Russia, the German's primary objective was Russian oil fields in the south. That dictated the structure of the campaign, but also laid the groundwork for is failure as the German advance was spread over two great a front. In the Pacific the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour was designed to knock out the US fleet so that it couldn't slow the rapid advance the Japanes needed to make on Indonesian oil wells.
The focus on energy resources in Australia has moved to discussions about the security of our own oil requirements. While a more rapid move to electric or fuel-cell vehicles will make sense there are also many developments in biofuels, such as the microbial conversion of fatty acids into propane (which provides LPG for gas converted cars).
But the more important element is what happens to our trading relationships as countries no longer want our coal and gas. This is why Australia, as part of its national and economic security, needs to focus on being able to export its abundant energy capabilities, both as energy and energy intensive products.
Nine years of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government have been taking us in eaxactly the wrong direction. We have antagonised our Pacific neghbours over the response to climate change. We have failed to address our own energy security and the question of replacing our largest export industries. Our defence capability has focussed on ever bigger announcements about platforms (tanks, submarines) of limited usefulness, and failed to acknowledge the importance of a strong disaster response capability both for ourselves and our neighbours.
Despite these failings, the LNP still believes its strengths are national security and economic management. If people need more convincing on the fallacy of that proposition, just remind them that it was Curtin who fought WWII and it was Whitlam, Hawke and Keating who created the strong open trading economy.
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Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans JWL
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