Memo to Kevin Rudd

Should Kevin hold aspirations to again lead the ALP, and even be PM? The answer is clearly yes. But the ongoing speculation won't help.

His current position is incredibly reminiscent of John Howard after his first stint at leadership. Howard was dumped because of his insular style. To plan for his return he engaged with all his parliamentary colleagues.

A contrast is Peter Costello. As Howard makes clear in his memoirs he didn't step aside for Costello because Costello never won the support of his colleagues.

The problem for a Rudd return ever remains that they haven't forgotten the insular leadership. He won the leadership the first time by campaigning directly to the public (through Sunrise amongst other ways), but he won't win it back that way.

I've already given my gratuitous advice to the ALP, and in particular the need for a refresh on the front-bench and to move Swan on.

My advice to Kevin Rudd is that he can be an agent for this change. He can be the bloke who goes and visits all his colleagues, one by one, and explains to them the need to support the PM. In doing so he will show them the PM he can be.

Rudd's best chance of a return to leadership is by helping Julia Gillard over her current troubles and secure a smooth transition next term. If they lose an election the party will turn to Combet or Shorten.

Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est

Swan and Vanstone

I'm not sure that Amanda Vanstone agreeing with my assessment of Wayne Swan is a good thing or not.

The one thing I can disagree with is her conclusion;

I believe Wayne Swan doesn't sound comfortable in the job because deep down he knows he is struggling - and he probably knows that his colleagues know. What they may not have realised yet is that he is one of the Coalition's best assets.

I'm pretty sure the ALP knows this about Swan - but an effective strategy out of it is hard to find.

Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est

Swan

Further to my further gratuitous advice to the ALP it really does look like Wayne Swan is terminal as Treasurer.

Reshuffle in the Winter recess is a must! Macklin and Ferguson pensioned off, Swan to a large social portfolio and Shorten to Treasurer. If Swan won't go quietly then a challenge to him as Deputy by Combet or Shorten, and if it comes to that dump him from the Ministry.

PS The most telling line in the article "his propensity to always go for a political line or put down in an interview or in parliament led the Treasurer into trouble"...it sums up not only Swan, but the way the Government crafts so much of its narrative.

Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est

A crazy suggestion for the Gillard Government

Phillip Corey in the SMH this morning reckons "If this government had a duck, it would drown."

He was commenting on yet more bad poll numbers for the Government and how even a good budget has been harshly treated (and hoe the Tele can on one day accuse the budget of not being tough enough and on the next day criticise the modest restraint of "middle-class welfare".)

But he really nails the Government's malaise when he writes;

The government's inability to sell its policies and defend itself, combined with muddling its messages, especially over asylum seekers, is compounding its woes. So is its infatuation with Abbott and his inconsistencies. Yes, Labor needs to put the acid on him more than a government usually would for an opposition leader because it is just a heartbeat from a byelection and a change of government - but there is a limit.

It is rare, if not non-existent, now for the Prime Minister or a minister to give an interview or a press conference and, without prompting, to start talking about Abbott. They appear intimidated. It is little wonder that Abbott feels he has only to reinforce the negatives.

Here is a suggestion for the ALP, much of which is straight out of the spin book they should understand.

Stop referring to coalition spokespersons by name. at most use their titles. Mr Abbott is never Mr Abbott, he is the leader of the opposition, Joe Hockey is just the shadow treasurer. Using their titles will show up the absence of substance.

Also as far as possible try to refer to them as "the alternative government" or simply "coalition" rather than opposition or liberals. Don't feed their brand.

And above all just don't mention them if you can avoid it. When asked about the carbon tax explain it without trying to talk about other points of view. Talking about the coalition means ascribing to them a policy credibility that they don't have on their own.

And on the way through find a really good media coach for Wayne Swan. he is having too many "John Kerin" moments. Ministers should accept that the public accepts they don't know everything. So when asked "when was the last time the ALP brought in a budget surplus" either say "I'm not focussed on the past, but on the present and the future. The Government took the budget into deficit to provide stimulus to the economy. As a consequence we have only 4.5% unemployment, not nearly 10% like the US and many other developed countries. The task now is to return to surplus and this budget outlines how we will achieve that."

There is almost no question a journalist can come up with that you can't have a response to. But the responses need to be a bit better than just parrotting the official "phrase of the day".

Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est