Memo to Kevin Rudd

Should Kevin hold aspirations to again lead the ALP, and even be PM? The answer is clearly yes. But the ongoing speculation won't help.

His current position is incredibly reminiscent of John Howard after his first stint at leadership. Howard was dumped because of his insular style. To plan for his return he engaged with all his parliamentary colleagues.

A contrast is Peter Costello. As Howard makes clear in his memoirs he didn't step aside for Costello because Costello never won the support of his colleagues.

The problem for a Rudd return ever remains that they haven't forgotten the insular leadership. He won the leadership the first time by campaigning directly to the public (through Sunrise amongst other ways), but he won't win it back that way.

I've already given my gratuitous advice to the ALP, and in particular the need for a refresh on the front-bench and to move Swan on.

My advice to Kevin Rudd is that he can be an agent for this change. He can be the bloke who goes and visits all his colleagues, one by one, and explains to them the need to support the PM. In doing so he will show them the PM he can be.

Rudd's best chance of a return to leadership is by helping Julia Gillard over her current troubles and secure a smooth transition next term. If they lose an election the party will turn to Combet or Shorten.

Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est