Social analyst David Chalke in this morning's National Times writes
The political classes of Australia are living in one world and the public in another. In the words of eminent American social researcher Daniel Yankelovich, these worlds have different agendas, vocabularies and concerns and they are barely connecting with each other. The consequence is a significant and serious disconnect between public policy and the Australian people.
That is a strong thesis, but my perception is the void is not as great as the phrase suggests. (Note, the attribution to Yankelovich led me on an interesting search which is detailed at the end).
Chalke writes;
Public policy appears to be focused on the environment, public transport, the NBN and gay marriage, which are of low priority for the public, according to our own research. People are far more concerned about the future of the economy, rising unemployment, the cost of living and traffic congestion.
As a consequence, people have now stopped listening to the political classes and are focusing on their own lives until they can take their revenge at the next election.
The response of the "political class" would probably be that the environment and the NBN are both very much focussed on the future of the economy, both are about what a sustainable future looks like.
Unemployment is slightly rising again, but the ABS trend line below shows that this should be far from a major issue.
Equally the "cost of living" seems to be somewhat spurious, as the long run trend in CPI increases below shows.
Finally a policy discussion on public transport and a public concern of traffic congestion are clearly related to the same topic. (And indeed the NBN can also be related to it).
In fact, a better diagnosis of the malaise is not that politicians and the public have different agendas, it is that politicians have lost the capacity to explain the relationship between the political agenda and what matters to people.
Former Labor insider Karl Bitar has described it;
The problem with politics in general is that the process involved in getting promoted up the political ladder causes most people to lose their values, passion and beliefs. Political advancement favours those who can recruit members, attend campaign events and suck up to the right people rather than those with a passion for policy.
It's this very system [that] drains most people who climb the political ladder of their beliefs.
The policy failures of Labor governments are due, in part, to the lack of strong policy values some among ministers.
By the time many of our politicians and officials reach senior positions of power, they are no longer driven by the core policy values which brought them to be involved in politics in the first place. That's one of the reasons why Labor has this problem of defining its policy purpose in the 21st century.
In other words, if you aren't allowed to debate policy inside the party, you can't be expected to successfully debate it outside.
The corollary is that there will always be the senior sources happy to talk about leadership counts and factional positioning. That's what they know.
It is not just, as attributed to Anthony Albanese the 'need to have told our story better", it is to have a story to tell.
It is so interesting to hear these comments come out of the mouth of Bitar. It is a pity that he doesn't precede them with an acknowledgement that he and his mentors in the NSW Right, and those of the NSW Left who went along with destroying policy discussion within the party, was the architect of the problem.
It is a pity that he doesn't acknowledge that the problem can only be fixed in the ALP by bringing to an end union control of the party.
It appears that the Bitar quotes will appear in a new book by Tony Branston Looking for the Light on the Hill. It will be an interesting read, but I wonder if it will address the "Lord Voldemort" of the ALP - union control.
*****************************
On the Yankelovich statement.
Chalke attributed the line to Daniel Yankelovich. Under Yankelovich's name in the online article he gave a link to the website of one of Yankelovich's companies, not to the original quote. I found the insight interesting and wanted to know more.
However, attempts to find the original only found a reference to the idea in a New Atlantis column (from 2008) and another reference by David Chalke in an Australian Magazine item from December 2008.
The author of the first piece, Thomas Fitzgerald, states it as;
One such problem was raised by Daniel Yankelovich, a senior eminence in the polling industry and the founder of the opinion research organization bearing his name, when speaking at a 1998 conference on wider participation in policy development for genetic research. He pointed out that such public policy issues often lack resolution because of a failure of engagement with the affected public, and the continuing disconnect between policymakers and the public itself: “Experts and elites live in one world, the public in another. These worlds have different concerns, agendas, vocabularies, and subcultures, and are barely connecting with each other.” His diagnosis can be confirmed throughout standard opinion polling, mostly done not in face-to-face interviews or in focus groups, but by telephone calls.
Chalke in his piece states it as;
“Experts live in one world, the public in another. These worlds have different concerns, agendas and vocabularies, which rarely connect with each other. The result has been a serious and growing disconnect.” So wrote Daniel Yankelovich, the éminence grise of American social research in the 1990s. What Yankelovich identified then has grown into today’s public scepticism of, and weakening faith in, experts and “the system” in general.
Googling the first phrase of the first sentence of the latter only results in the item itself, Googling the first sentence of the former results in the item and one other reference by Chalke as the lasy slide in a 2004 presentation.
So what did Yakelovich claim? was it in a speech or in writing? His website gives his speeches, including one to the Kellog institute in 1998. In this Yakelovich says;
The second obstacle is the enormity of the communication gap between citizens and government. Government officials and the public do not speak the same language and often do not share the same values. The public is almost always poorly informed, it puts values ahead of facts, and it typically finds itself at an earlier stage of thinking about issues than experts and officials who have been deeply immersed in them. Under these conditions, ordinary methods of public education and discussion do little to narrow the gap between citizens and officials. Special skills are needed for this kind of citizen engagement, skills that are in short supply.
This looks close enough to be the sentiment referred to, and the rendition from Chalke and Fitzgerald possibly comes from someone's notes from the talk. But the context is significantly different. For Yankelovich this was one of three obstacles in a move from "public paticipation" to "citizen engagement" and the other two were bureaucratic criticism that citizen engagement is too cumbersome and expensive, and "leadership resistance" (which really means leaders who think they know better than the masses).
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Random thoughts (when I get around to it) on politics and public discourse by David Havyatt. This blog is created in Google blogger and so that means they use cookies etc.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Cities
The Australian Government released its State of Australian Cities 2011 report today.
Despite the comment that;
Analysis shows a strong positive correlation between cities with robust information and communications technology and strong intellectual assets.
The word "broadband" seems to only appear twice in the report, both times in reference to a ranking of Sydney in a PWC report.
What hope is there for public understanding of the importance of broadband if in can receive such scant treatment in a 257 page report issued by the Department of Infrastructure?
I think this reflects the comment I made way back in May that the Government as a whole doesn't seem to get the whole Digital Economy thing.....
(Note. I'm happy to be corrected if I've misrepresented the report. I did rely on a simple search for the word "broadband").
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Despite the comment that;
Analysis shows a strong positive correlation between cities with robust information and communications technology and strong intellectual assets.
The word "broadband" seems to only appear twice in the report, both times in reference to a ranking of Sydney in a PWC report.
What hope is there for public understanding of the importance of broadband if in can receive such scant treatment in a 257 page report issued by the Department of Infrastructure?
I think this reflects the comment I made way back in May that the Government as a whole doesn't seem to get the whole Digital Economy thing.....
(Note. I'm happy to be corrected if I've misrepresented the report. I did rely on a simple search for the word "broadband").
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Technicians and true politicians
A theme in Frank Sartor's new book The Fog on the Hill is the relationship between policy and politics. Sartor propounds the view that too many in the NSW ALP were putting politics before policy; they wanted to say what the public wanted to hear, not work out what they wanted to say and then figure out how to present it.
Ultimately, it is a false dichotomy. Good policy is good politics. It is much easier to present an idea that you actually believe in than to present an idea just because it is what you think the audience wants to hear. And ultimately the problem is that simple pursuit of what is popular ultimately leads to a blind alley. The US is a particular example - more services is popular, less taxes is popular ... but continual deficit budgets are unsustainable.
Fred Chaney recently addressed the Accountability Roundtable at Melbourne Uni's Centre for Comparative Constitutional Studies. After reflecting on his own dissafection at the last election he said;
Rather than collecting the many expressions of dissatisfaction it may be more constructive to look at what are the foundations of purposeful politics directed to the national interest and in particular the longer term interest of Australia.
What are the sea anchors in a system, stabilising factors which enable the electorate to discern the direction of travel, to put individual decisions whether popular or unpopular into an understandable context? Where is the story to come from which enables single issues to be seen as part of an overall program which can be judged within a context rather than a freestanding publication to be judged in isolation on the basis of who loses?
There are a number of factors which in isolation or together can clarify what a government stands for, a number of ways in which politicians may demonstrate with some clarity how they will judge where their duty lies and we can see integrity in their actions.
The answers he provided were -
1. purposeful leadership,
2. adherence to a coherent and declared ideology,
3. broad-based political parties with large numbers of members exercising real authority over policy and candidate selections
On the last point he said;
The professionalisation of politics and the party system is the opposite of a sea anchor. The political technicians have taken over from the policy makers. The increased skills now available to read the public mood, to determine what the public will accept today and what words can be heard today without rejection has led to reversal of the rule laid down for me by my friend and colleague Jim Carlton, himself for a time a party professional.
When we worked together on economic issues during the 1980s he made the point that the first task is to find the right answer, the second task is to work out how to sell it. This is the antithesis of an approach based on finding out what you can sell today to provide the answer for tomorrow.
This last sentiment brought to mind again the observations made about the marketing skills of Steve Jobs. He relentlessly pursued developing the products to met the needs of people, despite the fact that those people could not describe their needs. To do so he created a relentless organisation.
That I think encompasses the troika identified by Fred Chaney. Put simply the troika is - leadership, policy (or philosophy) and organisation - the three themes I wrote about in my piece for the Southern Highlands Branch Newsletter.
The thing is that achieving just one of these doesn't improve things. The good news is that between them they should form a virtuous circle, improving each makes improving the others more achievable.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Ultimately, it is a false dichotomy. Good policy is good politics. It is much easier to present an idea that you actually believe in than to present an idea just because it is what you think the audience wants to hear. And ultimately the problem is that simple pursuit of what is popular ultimately leads to a blind alley. The US is a particular example - more services is popular, less taxes is popular ... but continual deficit budgets are unsustainable.
Fred Chaney recently addressed the Accountability Roundtable at Melbourne Uni's Centre for Comparative Constitutional Studies. After reflecting on his own dissafection at the last election he said;
Rather than collecting the many expressions of dissatisfaction it may be more constructive to look at what are the foundations of purposeful politics directed to the national interest and in particular the longer term interest of Australia.
What are the sea anchors in a system, stabilising factors which enable the electorate to discern the direction of travel, to put individual decisions whether popular or unpopular into an understandable context? Where is the story to come from which enables single issues to be seen as part of an overall program which can be judged within a context rather than a freestanding publication to be judged in isolation on the basis of who loses?
There are a number of factors which in isolation or together can clarify what a government stands for, a number of ways in which politicians may demonstrate with some clarity how they will judge where their duty lies and we can see integrity in their actions.
The answers he provided were -
1. purposeful leadership,
2. adherence to a coherent and declared ideology,
3. broad-based political parties with large numbers of members exercising real authority over policy and candidate selections
On the last point he said;
The professionalisation of politics and the party system is the opposite of a sea anchor. The political technicians have taken over from the policy makers. The increased skills now available to read the public mood, to determine what the public will accept today and what words can be heard today without rejection has led to reversal of the rule laid down for me by my friend and colleague Jim Carlton, himself for a time a party professional.
When we worked together on economic issues during the 1980s he made the point that the first task is to find the right answer, the second task is to work out how to sell it. This is the antithesis of an approach based on finding out what you can sell today to provide the answer for tomorrow.
This last sentiment brought to mind again the observations made about the marketing skills of Steve Jobs. He relentlessly pursued developing the products to met the needs of people, despite the fact that those people could not describe their needs. To do so he created a relentless organisation.
That I think encompasses the troika identified by Fred Chaney. Put simply the troika is - leadership, policy (or philosophy) and organisation - the three themes I wrote about in my piece for the Southern Highlands Branch Newsletter.
The thing is that achieving just one of these doesn't improve things. The good news is that between them they should form a virtuous circle, improving each makes improving the others more achievable.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
On tablets and brands
Language is a funny thing. I recall working with an American consultant in 1991. Just as we were about to go into a meeting he looked at me and said "I know this isn't the word you use, but do you have a tablet I could use?"
Luckily I was able to interpret that he was after a writing pad and not some kind of pill.
Today there is news that Telstra is abandoning the marketing of the Telstra T-Touch. This was their own branded tablet - but it was a white-labelled Huawei device.
Huawei has been an active provider of white labelled modems - if you have a 3G wireless dongle there is a very good chance that it is a Huawei device. But they have not been making big moves into the direct consumer branded device market yet.
Telstra has discovered the limitation of their brand - in quite an interesting way. Where the device is clearly identified as being integral to the operation of the network - the dongle - Telstra branding works. However where the device is largely independent of the network then other branding is potentially more useful.
This is an important lesson for Telstra as it continues to think of its growth opportunities in media and applications. It should form an important consideration in its approach to partnering and co-operation - issues I've recently written about and had echoed by other execs.
Brand has always been a challenge for telcos. For example I can recall one case where a service provider could not reach agreement for resale of a mobile network's offering, even though the service provider's parent owned a big hunk of the mobile operator. Each party insisted on its own brand being on the mobile service. I couldn't understand why the SP (who I worked for) didn't agree. We only wanted to sell it in a bundle, the MO didn't sell bundles. We had no "brand" in mobiles, the MO had invested a lot in brand.
And I looked at my laptop, which was branded IBM (at the time), the software was Windows and the processor was Intel - the latter had their brands proudly attached to the case of the laptop with stickers (as they both do on the HP machine I'm on now). Each of those parties benefits by being associated with a leading brand in the related field.
Telcos have learnt this with phones. They need to learn it about content and applications.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Luckily I was able to interpret that he was after a writing pad and not some kind of pill.
Today there is news that Telstra is abandoning the marketing of the Telstra T-Touch. This was their own branded tablet - but it was a white-labelled Huawei device.
Huawei has been an active provider of white labelled modems - if you have a 3G wireless dongle there is a very good chance that it is a Huawei device. But they have not been making big moves into the direct consumer branded device market yet.
Telstra has discovered the limitation of their brand - in quite an interesting way. Where the device is clearly identified as being integral to the operation of the network - the dongle - Telstra branding works. However where the device is largely independent of the network then other branding is potentially more useful.
This is an important lesson for Telstra as it continues to think of its growth opportunities in media and applications. It should form an important consideration in its approach to partnering and co-operation - issues I've recently written about and had echoed by other execs.
Brand has always been a challenge for telcos. For example I can recall one case where a service provider could not reach agreement for resale of a mobile network's offering, even though the service provider's parent owned a big hunk of the mobile operator. Each party insisted on its own brand being on the mobile service. I couldn't understand why the SP (who I worked for) didn't agree. We only wanted to sell it in a bundle, the MO didn't sell bundles. We had no "brand" in mobiles, the MO had invested a lot in brand.
And I looked at my laptop, which was branded IBM (at the time), the software was Windows and the processor was Intel - the latter had their brands proudly attached to the case of the laptop with stickers (as they both do on the HP machine I'm on now). Each of those parties benefits by being associated with a leading brand in the related field.
Telcos have learnt this with phones. They need to learn it about content and applications.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Channelling global execs
In my iTnews column last week I wrote;
Telcos have made a habit of telling us that they aren’t each others’ main competitors, that the “real competition” is Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft or some other device.
They need to take this opportunity to act like they believe that their real competition are the application providers. They need to acknowledge that years of “competing on service” has just left customers frustrated...
A real commitment to customers in everything they do - and demanding the best from themselves - would identify the need to fix brand “telco” before investing in their own brands.
It was therefore nice to read that at an event for top 100 telcos the regional VP for AT&T said;
[Telcos must] all work together more often. We're going to have to work with different partners, to serve customer requirements.
This was in the context of;
A key telecoms operator event in London on Tuesday sent a clear message to the industry: telcos need to work together, and with other players in the value chain, to enable them to adapt to the changing needs of their customers.
Nice to see global telcos agree with me!!!!
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Telcos have made a habit of telling us that they aren’t each others’ main competitors, that the “real competition” is Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft or some other device.
They need to take this opportunity to act like they believe that their real competition are the application providers. They need to acknowledge that years of “competing on service” has just left customers frustrated...
A real commitment to customers in everything they do - and demanding the best from themselves - would identify the need to fix brand “telco” before investing in their own brands.
It was therefore nice to read that at an event for top 100 telcos the regional VP for AT&T said;
[Telcos must] all work together more often. We're going to have to work with different partners, to serve customer requirements.
This was in the context of;
A key telecoms operator event in London on Tuesday sent a clear message to the industry: telcos need to work together, and with other players in the value chain, to enable them to adapt to the changing needs of their customers.
Nice to see global telcos agree with me!!!!
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Cultural Policy
In a two-part item on cultural policy on The Conversation, Stuart Cunningham first outlines the contribution of the cultural sector to the economy, including jobs, and then introduces a Culture Consumption Price Index (CCPI)
The introduction to the National Cultural Policy discussion paper says;
The arts and creative industries are fundamental to Australia’s identity as a
society and nation, and increasingly to our success as a national economy.
We could first spend some time distinguishing between "Culture" and "culture". The latter represents all the various common behaviours, language, idioms and imagery of the society. The former is a formal representation of these in a specific form. The former play an important role in reflecting and creating the latter and are an important part of their diffusion throughout the community.
So "Culture" matters because of the role it plays in establishing "culture" - our social norms.
But it also matters economically. Firstly, citizens do pay to access Culture - and one issue is whether that is imported or locally produced, or indeed exported.
Discussion of the economics of Culture often leave people bemused who think that "economic production" is about the material essentials of life; food, housing etc. However the most salient observation of market theory is that markets develop anywhere and are driven by the consumption preferences of individuals. People do want to spend their money on Culture, and given that fact it is just as important that the activity occurs "efficient;y" as any other activity.
In brief disparaging high-speed broadband because one of its uses is the consumption of Cultural elements reflects a lack of understanding about the subject of economic inquiry.
The CCPI then provides evidence of significant disparity between regional areas. That is not surprising. The item in The Conversation doesn't link to the actual study, but having found it more information on the six goods in the basket can be found.
The study notes;
This constrains the basket to appear simplistic at first, seemingly missing
the texture and the fullness of contemporary cultural consumption possibilities.
But a good index is a simple index of as few items as is defensible, with their
criteria for inclusion being representativeness in cost structure.
The six goods listed are;
((1) mass culture (blockbuster movie); (2) high culture
(theatre); (3) family culture (library); (4) cultural learning (music lesson); (5)
social interactive culture (festival); and (6) home culture (music download).
While there are many other aspects we may have sought to include, we maintain
that these six dimensions capture a significant range of variation in the full cost
of cultural consumption in Australia.
The methodology of the price index construction includes direct cost and opportunity cost of time involved to travel to a cinema, theatre etc. It is hard to understand from that the assertion made that;
And Minister Simon Crean has dubbed the NBN “the most important piece of cultural infrastructure Australia has ever seen”.
One of the most important dimensions of the NBN – one that differentiates it from almost all other fast broadband plans – is the symmetry it offers between download and upload capability.
Regional Australia will enjoy much faster downloads (cultural consumption will be easier and cheaper), but there will also be huge new potential for cultural participation, exchange and profiling.
A snippet of that potential includes hyperlocal journalism providing coverage lost through broadcasting aggregation, hundreds of regional museums displaying their wares across the nation and new businesses made viable by the access provided by fast broadband.
Very few of these factors would actually change the CCPI. They don't reduce the travel costs of the mass cultural items, and possibly only a music lesson benefits from improved uplink speed (real two-way video conferencing).
An interesting dimension would be to add to cultural policy things like a "virtual cinema" which streams first release movies but can only be received by households in areas defined to be outside the catchment of real cinemas actually showing the film. The same could be constructed for broadcasting of live theatre production to remote areas.
It is a pity that such a good piece of empirical work (the CCPI) has been mis-used by simply making assertions. The NBN is an enabler for reducing regional cultural disadvantage, but it requires other policy developments as well.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
The introduction to the National Cultural Policy discussion paper says;
The arts and creative industries are fundamental to Australia’s identity as a
society and nation, and increasingly to our success as a national economy.
We could first spend some time distinguishing between "Culture" and "culture". The latter represents all the various common behaviours, language, idioms and imagery of the society. The former is a formal representation of these in a specific form. The former play an important role in reflecting and creating the latter and are an important part of their diffusion throughout the community.
So "Culture" matters because of the role it plays in establishing "culture" - our social norms.
But it also matters economically. Firstly, citizens do pay to access Culture - and one issue is whether that is imported or locally produced, or indeed exported.
Discussion of the economics of Culture often leave people bemused who think that "economic production" is about the material essentials of life; food, housing etc. However the most salient observation of market theory is that markets develop anywhere and are driven by the consumption preferences of individuals. People do want to spend their money on Culture, and given that fact it is just as important that the activity occurs "efficient;y" as any other activity.
In brief disparaging high-speed broadband because one of its uses is the consumption of Cultural elements reflects a lack of understanding about the subject of economic inquiry.
The CCPI then provides evidence of significant disparity between regional areas. That is not surprising. The item in The Conversation doesn't link to the actual study, but having found it more information on the six goods in the basket can be found.
The study notes;
This constrains the basket to appear simplistic at first, seemingly missing
the texture and the fullness of contemporary cultural consumption possibilities.
But a good index is a simple index of as few items as is defensible, with their
criteria for inclusion being representativeness in cost structure.
The six goods listed are;
((1) mass culture (blockbuster movie); (2) high culture
(theatre); (3) family culture (library); (4) cultural learning (music lesson); (5)
social interactive culture (festival); and (6) home culture (music download).
While there are many other aspects we may have sought to include, we maintain
that these six dimensions capture a significant range of variation in the full cost
of cultural consumption in Australia.
The methodology of the price index construction includes direct cost and opportunity cost of time involved to travel to a cinema, theatre etc. It is hard to understand from that the assertion made that;
And Minister Simon Crean has dubbed the NBN “the most important piece of cultural infrastructure Australia has ever seen”.
One of the most important dimensions of the NBN – one that differentiates it from almost all other fast broadband plans – is the symmetry it offers between download and upload capability.
Regional Australia will enjoy much faster downloads (cultural consumption will be easier and cheaper), but there will also be huge new potential for cultural participation, exchange and profiling.
A snippet of that potential includes hyperlocal journalism providing coverage lost through broadcasting aggregation, hundreds of regional museums displaying their wares across the nation and new businesses made viable by the access provided by fast broadband.
Very few of these factors would actually change the CCPI. They don't reduce the travel costs of the mass cultural items, and possibly only a music lesson benefits from improved uplink speed (real two-way video conferencing).
An interesting dimension would be to add to cultural policy things like a "virtual cinema" which streams first release movies but can only be received by households in areas defined to be outside the catchment of real cinemas actually showing the film. The same could be constructed for broadcasting of live theatre production to remote areas.
It is a pity that such a good piece of empirical work (the CCPI) has been mis-used by simply making assertions. The NBN is an enabler for reducing regional cultural disadvantage, but it requires other policy developments as well.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Is it weird?
Four resolutions were voted on at the Telstra AGM; the NBN transaction, the re-appointment of the Chair and another Director and the remuneration report.
99.45% supported the NBN agreements. Is it weird that it received the biggest majority of the four votes?
As the Telstra meeting was going on the Prime Minister announced the release by NBNCo of the twelve month schedule.
Was it weird that the Government blurred the message? By waiting a day it could have been messaged as either "good news we can release the schedule with more confidence the agreement with Telstra will come into effect" or, if the result had been bad, "we continue regardless."
Was it also weird that the Prime Minister announced anything? This is NBN Co's schedule, it is their job to do it. The Government should be not politicising the schedule so much - save its moment to stand in the sunshine when there are more services and an election is looming.
I've also said before that the PM has got to stop wanting to announce everything. Let Ministers announce without her. Maybe even go back to the Whitlam-esque once weekly press conference and do a weekly sweep of "all the good things our Government ids doing" - build the image of a team of achieving Ministers.
So I think the answer to all of the above is - yes it is weird.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
99.45% supported the NBN agreements. Is it weird that it received the biggest majority of the four votes?
As the Telstra meeting was going on the Prime Minister announced the release by NBNCo of the twelve month schedule.
Was it weird that the Government blurred the message? By waiting a day it could have been messaged as either "good news we can release the schedule with more confidence the agreement with Telstra will come into effect" or, if the result had been bad, "we continue regardless."
Was it also weird that the Prime Minister announced anything? This is NBN Co's schedule, it is their job to do it. The Government should be not politicising the schedule so much - save its moment to stand in the sunshine when there are more services and an election is looming.
I've also said before that the PM has got to stop wanting to announce everything. Let Ministers announce without her. Maybe even go back to the Whitlam-esque once weekly press conference and do a weekly sweep of "all the good things our Government ids doing" - build the image of a team of achieving Ministers.
So I think the answer to all of the above is - yes it is weird.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Telstra AFR
Very pleased with my first ever Op Ed piece run in the AFR this morning. (Behind paywall).
As 99% of proxies voted for the resolution it didn't really matter, but it was important to inject a dose of reality into the conversation given the politically motivated campaign to derail the deal.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
As 99% of proxies voted for the resolution it didn't really matter, but it was important to inject a dose of reality into the conversation given the politically motivated campaign to derail the deal.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Monday, October 17, 2011
Can the Government win on Australia Television tender
Ultimately it is absurd to have a Government funded national overseas television service operated by anyone other than the Government funded broadcaster. However, since the commercial networks first had the Australia Television service tendered out under the Howard Government (won by Seven) that has been the accepted position.
Perhaps having it in commercial hands can provide greater cover for the service upsetting foreign powers; but the powers likely to be offended won't really comprehend the nicety.
The Australian today reports that the second assessment of tenders is going to recommend Sky.
But with its high News Ltd relationship making the decision either way can be spun by the Opposition. If the tender is awarded to the ABC then the action is to "punish" News for its coverage; if it is awarded to the ABC it will be a "bribe" for News to change its coverage.
Ultimately that is always the problem with any process where a media player is the potential beneficiary of a Government contract.
That is an additional reason to have the service run by the ABC. But the decision should be made not to award the contract to the ABC, but to abandon the tender process totally and to amend the ABC charter so that the provision of Australia Television is part of its ongoing function. That change should be accompanied by legislation that entitles Australia Television to a mechanism to "compulsorily acquire" sporting and other culturally (yes sport is cultural) significant coverage content if that content is not otherwise being internationally distributed.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Perhaps having it in commercial hands can provide greater cover for the service upsetting foreign powers; but the powers likely to be offended won't really comprehend the nicety.
The Australian today reports that the second assessment of tenders is going to recommend Sky.
But with its high News Ltd relationship making the decision either way can be spun by the Opposition. If the tender is awarded to the ABC then the action is to "punish" News for its coverage; if it is awarded to the ABC it will be a "bribe" for News to change its coverage.
Ultimately that is always the problem with any process where a media player is the potential beneficiary of a Government contract.
That is an additional reason to have the service run by the ABC. But the decision should be made not to award the contract to the ABC, but to abandon the tender process totally and to amend the ABC charter so that the provision of Australia Television is part of its ongoing function. That change should be accompanied by legislation that entitles Australia Television to a mechanism to "compulsorily acquire" sporting and other culturally (yes sport is cultural) significant coverage content if that content is not otherwise being internationally distributed.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Occupiers and Pirates - a reprise (updated)
I'm going to link the two movements again because they both represent a shift in thinking. They know what they are against but haven't yet figured out what they are for.
Today Peter Shergold tells us that what the Occupiers hate about business is the "unconstrained pursuit of high-risk short-term profits." For him the solution is just a nice dose of good old fashioned "Corporate Social Responsibility" (or CSR).
I wondered how he went pitching this to John Howard when he was Secretary in PM&C. Then I remembered that Howard did have a go at promoting corporate philanthropy, but as Shergold points out that is not the same thing. That is the activity that does usually get short shrift as "launch, lunch, logo." Shergold sumarises it as;
The challenge for those of us who believe in market economics is how to restore business legitimacy. The 'licence to operate' needs to be rearticulated. Business must be able to exhibit its societal value, not to trade-off against the social and environmental costs of economic success but as integral to the supply-chain by which goods and services are produced. 'Giving back' is no longer sufficient. Charity won't save capitalism.
But Shergold does nothing to rebuff the most compelling counter-argument from Milton Friedman, who argued The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits.
Yes there are good examples of CSR or triple bottom line - but as one blogging former exec notes individual KPIs still reflect revenue growth well above the CSR stuff.
There is a logical case that CSR in fact drives better financial performance long-term, but the issue remains the focus on short-term results. Short-term results have become significant through the inadequate response to the principal-agent issue; that is tying managers to the interests of shareholders.
The interests of shareholders - especially those whose retirement savings are invested - is in long term returns not short-term share price. As I commented before a way of dealing with this issue is by changing the remuneration basis of executives.
But Shergold also has to deal with the unfortunate facts of capitalism in America. Decades of focus on economic efficiency over equity have resulted in a dramatically less equitable society. CSR might knock the unpalatable edges off business, but will it change the equity trend?
I think the answer is "no.' I think that change requires a fundamental reset of the values espoused in public policy - away from "economic efficiency" and towards "growth and equity". They are very very different things.
Finally, the Pirate Party in Germany grapples with the question of what next from a totally different stance. In a discussion about the fact the party is very male oriented the political director (a female) said;
We don't keep track of our members' gender. We believe true equality starts when we stop counting women.
That is possibly the best indication that we are now in a "post-sixties" generation. Popular movements from the mid 1960s on have built on the themes of peace, environmentalism, and feminism. The current generation of "young radicals" take these as given - whether rightly or not. They may not be universally accepted across society, but they are almost universally adopted in the younger persons value set. They aren't, therefore, worth campaigning about.
Update: Ross Gittins this morning offered an interesting take of the failure of most economists to address some of the issues. He cited a book The Economics of Enough. A quick "thumb through" of the copy I just bought for my "Kindle for PC" (don't you just love that immediacy) says it is a very good book written from the basis of an orthodox economist recognising some of the empirical results (inequality, recession) and other theoretical work (institutionalism, behavioural economics). It deserves a more thorough read.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Today Peter Shergold tells us that what the Occupiers hate about business is the "unconstrained pursuit of high-risk short-term profits." For him the solution is just a nice dose of good old fashioned "Corporate Social Responsibility" (or CSR).
I wondered how he went pitching this to John Howard when he was Secretary in PM&C. Then I remembered that Howard did have a go at promoting corporate philanthropy, but as Shergold points out that is not the same thing. That is the activity that does usually get short shrift as "launch, lunch, logo." Shergold sumarises it as;
The challenge for those of us who believe in market economics is how to restore business legitimacy. The 'licence to operate' needs to be rearticulated. Business must be able to exhibit its societal value, not to trade-off against the social and environmental costs of economic success but as integral to the supply-chain by which goods and services are produced. 'Giving back' is no longer sufficient. Charity won't save capitalism.
But Shergold does nothing to rebuff the most compelling counter-argument from Milton Friedman, who argued The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits.
Yes there are good examples of CSR or triple bottom line - but as one blogging former exec notes individual KPIs still reflect revenue growth well above the CSR stuff.
There is a logical case that CSR in fact drives better financial performance long-term, but the issue remains the focus on short-term results. Short-term results have become significant through the inadequate response to the principal-agent issue; that is tying managers to the interests of shareholders.
The interests of shareholders - especially those whose retirement savings are invested - is in long term returns not short-term share price. As I commented before a way of dealing with this issue is by changing the remuneration basis of executives.
But Shergold also has to deal with the unfortunate facts of capitalism in America. Decades of focus on economic efficiency over equity have resulted in a dramatically less equitable society. CSR might knock the unpalatable edges off business, but will it change the equity trend?
I think the answer is "no.' I think that change requires a fundamental reset of the values espoused in public policy - away from "economic efficiency" and towards "growth and equity". They are very very different things.
Finally, the Pirate Party in Germany grapples with the question of what next from a totally different stance. In a discussion about the fact the party is very male oriented the political director (a female) said;
We don't keep track of our members' gender. We believe true equality starts when we stop counting women.
That is possibly the best indication that we are now in a "post-sixties" generation. Popular movements from the mid 1960s on have built on the themes of peace, environmentalism, and feminism. The current generation of "young radicals" take these as given - whether rightly or not. They may not be universally accepted across society, but they are almost universally adopted in the younger persons value set. They aren't, therefore, worth campaigning about.
Update: Ross Gittins this morning offered an interesting take of the failure of most economists to address some of the issues. He cited a book The Economics of Enough. A quick "thumb through" of the copy I just bought for my "Kindle for PC" (don't you just love that immediacy) says it is a very good book written from the basis of an orthodox economist recognising some of the empirical results (inequality, recession) and other theoretical work (institutionalism, behavioural economics). It deserves a more thorough read.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
The other lessons from Jobs
I've alreadt blogged about my little homily on the lessons telcos could learn from Steve Jobs.
But not all the lessons we learn from Jobs are good ones - indeed there are some important public policy ones.
The management homily by example is given another good run by Dr Ray Welling in NETT magazine.
They list six Jobs statements;
* Things don’t have to change the world to be important.
* The cure for Apple is not cost-cutting. The cure for Apple is to innovate its way out of its current predicament.
* It’s really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.
* They can have any colour they like, as long as it’s black (actually a mis-quote of Henry Ford - but the essence is the same - simplification is a key to success).
* It’s more fun to be a pirate than to join the navy.
* I think if you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long. Just figure out what’s next.
But there are other lessons to be learned.
Sam Varghese reckons that Jobs deserves more criticism for his obsessiveness about "proprietary software."
The issue isn't just about software. It is about the whole management of "intellectual property" as I wrote recently.
As the case between Apple and Samsung now moves in the US to a phase of Apple needing to establish the validity of its patents analysis of the Australian case reveals that the patents being relied on could potentially stop all other tablets. The article specifically mentions Android based ones, but the patents cover the navigation interface being first a "multipoint touchscreen" and second a "touch screen device, method, and graphical user interface for determining commands by applying heuristics".
One gets the feeling that if Jobs hadn't actually just lifted the Mac GUI from Xerox that there would have been a patent on mice and MS-DOS could never have become Windows.
If I can patent these kind of new ideas, could a professional athlete patent a new technique used in an event - think the first person to jump backwards over a high jump. Is that what we want?
Of course the law and economics types who think that property rights are what propel an economy would disagree.
But last week also saw the passing of Dennis Ritchie, whose development of UNIX and C has been described as a legacy that;
is the rich suite of devices and applications that we use on a daily basis. Everything from televisions to phones, tablet computers, mainstream computers, online e-commerce and banking — all of these things we enjoy on a daily basis stretch back to the work done by Ritchie.
Part of the issue is a very straight forward economic one (or industrial organisation) which is when does the exercise of the property right amount to monopolization and when does it merely amount to just reward for the innovation? The choice is not binary between having inventions in which there are property rights and a totally open source/IP free world. The question is whether there is a point at which refusal to licence, or unreasonable terms of doing so, is injurious to "economic prosperity".
The term "economic prosperity" has been carefully chosen here to incorporate both the idea of static efficiency but also the growth consequences of "spillovers."
It raises the really interesting question of whether the patent system that fuelled so much of the US economic success from the middle of the nineteenth century could be now harming the US economy. (Alexander Graham Bell's evidence to the 1910 Royal Commission into the Postal Service provides a nice comparison between the US and British patent systems then applying.)
Finally, just as a reminder that no one is a saint, the Jobs fixation on achieving low input prices could well be driving labour exploitation.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
But not all the lessons we learn from Jobs are good ones - indeed there are some important public policy ones.
The management homily by example is given another good run by Dr Ray Welling in NETT magazine.
They list six Jobs statements;
* Things don’t have to change the world to be important.
* The cure for Apple is not cost-cutting. The cure for Apple is to innovate its way out of its current predicament.
* It’s really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.
* They can have any colour they like, as long as it’s black (actually a mis-quote of Henry Ford - but the essence is the same - simplification is a key to success).
* It’s more fun to be a pirate than to join the navy.
* I think if you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long. Just figure out what’s next.
But there are other lessons to be learned.
Sam Varghese reckons that Jobs deserves more criticism for his obsessiveness about "proprietary software."
The issue isn't just about software. It is about the whole management of "intellectual property" as I wrote recently.
As the case between Apple and Samsung now moves in the US to a phase of Apple needing to establish the validity of its patents analysis of the Australian case reveals that the patents being relied on could potentially stop all other tablets. The article specifically mentions Android based ones, but the patents cover the navigation interface being first a "multipoint touchscreen" and second a "touch screen device, method, and graphical user interface for determining commands by applying heuristics".
One gets the feeling that if Jobs hadn't actually just lifted the Mac GUI from Xerox that there would have been a patent on mice and MS-DOS could never have become Windows.
If I can patent these kind of new ideas, could a professional athlete patent a new technique used in an event - think the first person to jump backwards over a high jump. Is that what we want?
Of course the law and economics types who think that property rights are what propel an economy would disagree.
But last week also saw the passing of Dennis Ritchie, whose development of UNIX and C has been described as a legacy that;
is the rich suite of devices and applications that we use on a daily basis. Everything from televisions to phones, tablet computers, mainstream computers, online e-commerce and banking — all of these things we enjoy on a daily basis stretch back to the work done by Ritchie.
Part of the issue is a very straight forward economic one (or industrial organisation) which is when does the exercise of the property right amount to monopolization and when does it merely amount to just reward for the innovation? The choice is not binary between having inventions in which there are property rights and a totally open source/IP free world. The question is whether there is a point at which refusal to licence, or unreasonable terms of doing so, is injurious to "economic prosperity".
The term "economic prosperity" has been carefully chosen here to incorporate both the idea of static efficiency but also the growth consequences of "spillovers."
It raises the really interesting question of whether the patent system that fuelled so much of the US economic success from the middle of the nineteenth century could be now harming the US economy. (Alexander Graham Bell's evidence to the 1910 Royal Commission into the Postal Service provides a nice comparison between the US and British patent systems then applying.)
Finally, just as a reminder that no one is a saint, the Jobs fixation on achieving low input prices could well be driving labour exploitation.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Friday, October 14, 2011
On double dissolutions
With Tony Abbott having made a "commitment in blood" (but we don't know if it is written down) to repeal the carbon tax, the question has been raised whether it is possible to do so.
The issue rests on timing and our weird electoral system.
In his Media Watch Dog Gerard Henderson takes Richard Dennis to task. Denniss it is claimed said on the BCs The Drum
Richard Denniss: …Even if there’s a 2013 election, the new Senate doesn’t take office until 2014. And you can’t use your double dissolution triggers until the new Senate arrives, you’re not going to have a double dissolution before 2015. The idea that we introduce a carbon price, scrap it in 2015 or 2016, even Greg Hunt says the direct action scheme is an interim measure and by 2020 the Liberals might support a carbon tax. It’s good politics, it’s good theatre. But we’re putting politics ahead of democracy and politics ahead of the economy here.
Henderson's reply is
What a load of tripe. Richard Denniss reckons it is putting politics ahead of democracy to respond to the wishes of a majority of electors. Fancy that. And his political calculations are simply incorrect. If, say, a Coalition government won an election in August 2013 it could put legislation through both the House of Representatives and the Senate by the end of the year. If the legislation is defeated, it could be re-submitted after three months. A further defeat would set up a double dissolution trigger – which could be held by mid-2014.
And Richard Denniss reckons that double dissolution triggers do not apply until a new Senate is in place. Can you bear it?.
My problem is that the position advanced by Denniss I heard being advanced after the 2007 election on Rudd's prospects. He is also not alone in advancing it now.
Two clauses of the constitution matter;
The first is the one that determines a Senator's term;
13. As soon as may be after the Senate first meets, and after each first meeting of the Senate following a dissolution thereof, the Senate shall divide the senators chosen for each State into two classes, as nearly equal in number as practicable; and the places of the senators of the first class shall become vacant at the expiration of three years, and the places of those of the second class at the expiration of six years, from the beginning of their term of service; and afterwards the places of senators shall be vacant at the expiration of six years from the beginning of their term of service.
The election to fill vacant places shall be made within one year before the places are to become vacant.
For the purpose of this section the term of service of a senator shall be taken to begin on the first day of July following the day of his election, except in the cases of the first election and of the election next after any dissolution of the Senate, when it shall be taken to begin on the first day of July preceding the day of his election.
The second is the rules for double dissolution;
57. If the House of representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.
If after such dissolution the House of Representatives again passes the proposed law, with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may convene a joint sitting of the members of the Senate and of the House of Representatives.
The members present at the joint sitting may deliberate and shall vote together upon the proposed law as last proposed by the House of Representatives, and upon amendments, if any, which have been made therein by one House and not agreed to by the other, and any such amendments which are affirmed by an absolute majority of the total number of the members of the Senate and House of Representatives shall be taken to have been carried, and if the proposed law, with the amendments, if any, so carried is affirmed by an absolute majority of the total number of the members of the Senate and House of Representatives, it shall be taken to have been duly passed by both Houses of the Parliament, and shall be presented to the Governor-General for the Queen's assent.
Nothing in the second clause seems to specify an earliest date at which the double dissolution can be triggered. I suspect, however, the issue is that the Governor-General can't dissolve a house before it has formed. The Senators elected due to take office in July 2014 would not have been "dissolved" by the GG in any dissolution before they take office.
The current version of the definitive Parliamentary document makes no reference to an earliest dat, but that could be because it was written after the new Senate sat.
Antony Green on his blog makes the assertion "With the new Senate taking its place on 1 July, it is now possible for the next election to be held as a double dissolution where the House and the whole Senate are dissolved together."
He goes on to note;
While it is not explicit in the Constitution, I believe it is implicit in the fixed terms of the Senate that a double dissolution trigger can only apply to legislation first blocked by a Senate in place after 1 July 2014. The Constitution states the Senators take their place on the 1 July after their election. Any double dissolution triggers attempted before new Senators take their seats would not allow the new Senators to vote on the legislation.
Ultimately there is the issue. The Constitution is unclear and the constitution only refers to the GG may call a double dissolution. I'm prepared to take a bet that NO GG will be prepared to agree to a Double Dissolution before the new Senate assembles. I'd also be prepared to be that following a November 2013 election Abbott couldn't get the Bills twice to a vote before July 2014, and I think it needs to be "the same Senate" that rejects the Bill.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
The issue rests on timing and our weird electoral system.
In his Media Watch Dog Gerard Henderson takes Richard Dennis to task. Denniss it is claimed said on the BCs The Drum
Richard Denniss: …Even if there’s a 2013 election, the new Senate doesn’t take office until 2014. And you can’t use your double dissolution triggers until the new Senate arrives, you’re not going to have a double dissolution before 2015. The idea that we introduce a carbon price, scrap it in 2015 or 2016, even Greg Hunt says the direct action scheme is an interim measure and by 2020 the Liberals might support a carbon tax. It’s good politics, it’s good theatre. But we’re putting politics ahead of democracy and politics ahead of the economy here.
Henderson's reply is
What a load of tripe. Richard Denniss reckons it is putting politics ahead of democracy to respond to the wishes of a majority of electors. Fancy that. And his political calculations are simply incorrect. If, say, a Coalition government won an election in August 2013 it could put legislation through both the House of Representatives and the Senate by the end of the year. If the legislation is defeated, it could be re-submitted after three months. A further defeat would set up a double dissolution trigger – which could be held by mid-2014.
And Richard Denniss reckons that double dissolution triggers do not apply until a new Senate is in place. Can you bear it?.
My problem is that the position advanced by Denniss I heard being advanced after the 2007 election on Rudd's prospects. He is also not alone in advancing it now.
Two clauses of the constitution matter;
The first is the one that determines a Senator's term;
13. As soon as may be after the Senate first meets, and after each first meeting of the Senate following a dissolution thereof, the Senate shall divide the senators chosen for each State into two classes, as nearly equal in number as practicable; and the places of the senators of the first class shall become vacant at the expiration of three years, and the places of those of the second class at the expiration of six years, from the beginning of their term of service; and afterwards the places of senators shall be vacant at the expiration of six years from the beginning of their term of service.
The election to fill vacant places shall be made within one year before the places are to become vacant.
For the purpose of this section the term of service of a senator shall be taken to begin on the first day of July following the day of his election, except in the cases of the first election and of the election next after any dissolution of the Senate, when it shall be taken to begin on the first day of July preceding the day of his election.
The second is the rules for double dissolution;
57. If the House of representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.
If after such dissolution the House of Representatives again passes the proposed law, with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may convene a joint sitting of the members of the Senate and of the House of Representatives.
The members present at the joint sitting may deliberate and shall vote together upon the proposed law as last proposed by the House of Representatives, and upon amendments, if any, which have been made therein by one House and not agreed to by the other, and any such amendments which are affirmed by an absolute majority of the total number of the members of the Senate and House of Representatives shall be taken to have been carried, and if the proposed law, with the amendments, if any, so carried is affirmed by an absolute majority of the total number of the members of the Senate and House of Representatives, it shall be taken to have been duly passed by both Houses of the Parliament, and shall be presented to the Governor-General for the Queen's assent.
Nothing in the second clause seems to specify an earliest date at which the double dissolution can be triggered. I suspect, however, the issue is that the Governor-General can't dissolve a house before it has formed. The Senators elected due to take office in July 2014 would not have been "dissolved" by the GG in any dissolution before they take office.
The current version of the definitive Parliamentary document makes no reference to an earliest dat, but that could be because it was written after the new Senate sat.
Antony Green on his blog makes the assertion "With the new Senate taking its place on 1 July, it is now possible for the next election to be held as a double dissolution where the House and the whole Senate are dissolved together."
He goes on to note;
While it is not explicit in the Constitution, I believe it is implicit in the fixed terms of the Senate that a double dissolution trigger can only apply to legislation first blocked by a Senate in place after 1 July 2014. The Constitution states the Senators take their place on the 1 July after their election. Any double dissolution triggers attempted before new Senators take their seats would not allow the new Senators to vote on the legislation.
Ultimately there is the issue. The Constitution is unclear and the constitution only refers to the GG may call a double dissolution. I'm prepared to take a bet that NO GG will be prepared to agree to a Double Dissolution before the new Senate assembles. I'd also be prepared to be that following a November 2013 election Abbott couldn't get the Bills twice to a vote before July 2014, and I think it needs to be "the same Senate" that rejects the Bill.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Thinking out loud
We've been told that the joint NBN Committee is going to hear from New Zealand so that;
The conversations are hoped to settle an ongoing argument from shadow communications minister Malcolm Turnbull that a fibre-to-the-node rollout would cost a quarter or a third of the $27 billion headline currently set for government contributions to the NBN.
I am a little bemused by the claim, and indeed how it relates to Turnbull's other claim that FTTN is a good interim technology, again because New Zealand has done it.
The New Zealand government has committed $1.5B to be a co-investor in delivering FTTH to 75% of premises. They are funding half and as the Government investor intend to accept a lower return than the private investors. I haven't seen the rest of the detail.
The population of New Zealand is roughly one fifth of Australia's, and the coverage of 75% is roughly 80% of our target. The $NZ3B investment for the coverage equates to about $NZ18.5B for the Australian FTTH coverage. Allowing for a 1.2 exchange rate we can tweak that back to $15.4B.
But we aren't doing apples for apples. The $26B of Government funding in Australia funds $43B investment in the NBN (P.365 of the implementation study). Not all the $43B funds the fibre build - in fact the breakdown from the implementation study is shown below.
At the simplest we can say one eighth of the total cost funds the satellite and fibre solution, so that means the Govt funding for the fibre part is seven-eighths of $26B, or $22.3.
But so far we've assumed that servicing 75% of premises would cost the same per premise as 93%. The implementation study conveniently provided a chart relating cost to penetration, below.
A generous interpretation is $2000 per premise for the first 75% and $5000 per premise for the additional 18%. That comes to the cost of the first 75% being 62.5% of the total fibre cost.
Or stated another way, if all the premises were covered at $2000 the project would cost 77.5%. If we simply use three-quarters the investment required to do 93% if it cost the same as 75% would be three quarters of 22.3 or $16.725B
So my numbers to compare are NZ $15.4B, Australia $16.7B. That variation could be potentially explained by the fact Chorus has built fibre to the node, but nothing in it deals with their lost sunk investment in nodes.
No wonder after Turnbull used the EIU report the EIU analyst pointed out that their report favoured the Australian solution over New Zealand (behind AFR paywall).
The difference is that Turnbull consistently ignores 25% of the people. I continue to ask where Fiona Nash and Barnaby Joyce are on this?
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
The conversations are hoped to settle an ongoing argument from shadow communications minister Malcolm Turnbull that a fibre-to-the-node rollout would cost a quarter or a third of the $27 billion headline currently set for government contributions to the NBN.
I am a little bemused by the claim, and indeed how it relates to Turnbull's other claim that FTTN is a good interim technology, again because New Zealand has done it.
The New Zealand government has committed $1.5B to be a co-investor in delivering FTTH to 75% of premises. They are funding half and as the Government investor intend to accept a lower return than the private investors. I haven't seen the rest of the detail.
The population of New Zealand is roughly one fifth of Australia's, and the coverage of 75% is roughly 80% of our target. The $NZ3B investment for the coverage equates to about $NZ18.5B for the Australian FTTH coverage. Allowing for a 1.2 exchange rate we can tweak that back to $15.4B.
But we aren't doing apples for apples. The $26B of Government funding in Australia funds $43B investment in the NBN (P.365 of the implementation study). Not all the $43B funds the fibre build - in fact the breakdown from the implementation study is shown below.
At the simplest we can say one eighth of the total cost funds the satellite and fibre solution, so that means the Govt funding for the fibre part is seven-eighths of $26B, or $22.3.
But so far we've assumed that servicing 75% of premises would cost the same per premise as 93%. The implementation study conveniently provided a chart relating cost to penetration, below.
A generous interpretation is $2000 per premise for the first 75% and $5000 per premise for the additional 18%. That comes to the cost of the first 75% being 62.5% of the total fibre cost.
Or stated another way, if all the premises were covered at $2000 the project would cost 77.5%. If we simply use three-quarters the investment required to do 93% if it cost the same as 75% would be three quarters of 22.3 or $16.725B
So my numbers to compare are NZ $15.4B, Australia $16.7B. That variation could be potentially explained by the fact Chorus has built fibre to the node, but nothing in it deals with their lost sunk investment in nodes.
No wonder after Turnbull used the EIU report the EIU analyst pointed out that their report favoured the Australian solution over New Zealand (behind AFR paywall).
The difference is that Turnbull consistently ignores 25% of the people. I continue to ask where Fiona Nash and Barnaby Joyce are on this?
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Huawei and Trade
Yet more interference with Huawei in the US on spurious security concerns.
Is the next step for Huawei a WTO action to argue that this is US protectionism under another name?
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Is the next step for Huawei a WTO action to argue that this is US protectionism under another name?
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Berating telcos
Today I again use my iTnews column to berate Australia's telcos.
This time I've used Steve Jobs to try to analyse what a truly customer focused telco would look like.
I really feel for all my colleagues in the corporate affairs and regulatory space because they cop the brunt of the commentary from the ACMA, ACCAN, the TIO and Minister about the need to improve customer service, but don't control any of it.
The people who do control it are in denial. The marketers believe they are competing on service, the customer service managers are focused on answering the phones quickly and the IT guys think they are being forever asked to change the systems for some new customer friendly tweek.
I'm going to keep banging on about it till the telcos show more signs of the need to do more things collectively. It won't win me any friends.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
This time I've used Steve Jobs to try to analyse what a truly customer focused telco would look like.
I really feel for all my colleagues in the corporate affairs and regulatory space because they cop the brunt of the commentary from the ACMA, ACCAN, the TIO and Minister about the need to improve customer service, but don't control any of it.
The people who do control it are in denial. The marketers believe they are competing on service, the customer service managers are focused on answering the phones quickly and the IT guys think they are being forever asked to change the systems for some new customer friendly tweek.
I'm going to keep banging on about it till the telcos show more signs of the need to do more things collectively. It won't win me any friends.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
How much is your MBA worth?
The latest ranking of MBAs by The Economist is accompanied by a simple summary of the impact on income, tuition fees and completion time for the top twenty.
It raises the simple question of "is the MBA worth it". For the analysis below I've made the following assumptions.
* The starting salary (salary at graduation less the percentage increase) would have been salary in perpetuity without study.
* The starting salary is income foregone for the duration of study (note this could be adjusted to add a variable number of months to gain post-study employment)
* The post graduation salary is salary in perpetuity after graduation.
* Total investment is salary foregone plus tuition fees (it might also need to include travel fees and a marginally increased accommodation cost).
* The benefit of the study is the salary increase.
* The total costs are incurred at the end of the study period.
* The discount rate is a bank rate (in Australia) that the individual could have earned on their investment, not what it would cost to borrow it.
The table below then lists the breakeven period in years from studying the MBA;
School Breakeven (Years)
Dartmouth 4.739753219
Chicago 7.099505598
IMD 2.38168461
Virginia 5.229798065
Harvard 6.226036989
Haas 6.012883336
Columbia 6.691201258
Stanford 5.634683547
York 2.201795183
IESE 2.314012985
MIT Sloan 6.221474851
New York 4.934890324
London 4.234646527
HEC Paris 1.801230378
Penn Wharton 6.147176899
Carnegie Mell. 5.233258692
ESADE 2.193307709
NW Kellog 6.443697885
INSEAD 4.23724441
Duke 4.430517136
(analysis available here)
This doesn't take into account other "opportunity costs" (or benefits) of locking yourself away (or networking). But I think I know why I never bothered.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
It raises the simple question of "is the MBA worth it". For the analysis below I've made the following assumptions.
* The starting salary (salary at graduation less the percentage increase) would have been salary in perpetuity without study.
* The starting salary is income foregone for the duration of study (note this could be adjusted to add a variable number of months to gain post-study employment)
* The post graduation salary is salary in perpetuity after graduation.
* Total investment is salary foregone plus tuition fees (it might also need to include travel fees and a marginally increased accommodation cost).
* The benefit of the study is the salary increase.
* The total costs are incurred at the end of the study period.
* The discount rate is a bank rate (in Australia) that the individual could have earned on their investment, not what it would cost to borrow it.
The table below then lists the breakeven period in years from studying the MBA;
School Breakeven (Years)
Dartmouth 4.739753219
Chicago 7.099505598
IMD 2.38168461
Virginia 5.229798065
Harvard 6.226036989
Haas 6.012883336
Columbia 6.691201258
Stanford 5.634683547
York 2.201795183
IESE 2.314012985
MIT Sloan 6.221474851
New York 4.934890324
London 4.234646527
HEC Paris 1.801230378
Penn Wharton 6.147176899
Carnegie Mell. 5.233258692
ESADE 2.193307709
NW Kellog 6.443697885
INSEAD 4.23724441
Duke 4.430517136
(analysis available here)
This doesn't take into account other "opportunity costs" (or benefits) of locking yourself away (or networking). But I think I know why I never bothered.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Asher's foolishness
So Allan Asher has been caught out providing Greens Senators with questions to ask him at estimates. The action has been called unwise and grubby.
It has been met with calls for explanation or resignation.
I agree with all those comments. Asher himself said;
I chose this unorthodox approach to bring my concerns to the attention of the Parliament and the public. I would welcome a discussion regarding the establishment of a parliamentary committee or some other accountability mechanism to specifically review my work and with whom I could raise issues of concern without compromise to the independence of my office.
Therein lies the particular issue. We have a number of statutory offices that are not subject to Ministerial direction like a Department. The ACCC, ACMA and ASIC are such bodies. Minister's can't really be "held to account" for administration in some ways by pleading the agency's independence.
Asher is not the first head of an agency to find budgets an issue. The ACMA utilised a number of channels to make submissions about the impact of Tanner's "efficiency dividend" on small agencies. There are routes other than feeding questions to Senators.
However, there does appear to be merit in creating more direct parliamentary oversight of agencies that are created to be independent of the Executive.
That said, it is hard to understand why Asher was not simply patient enough to include the issues in his annual report.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
It has been met with calls for explanation or resignation.
I agree with all those comments. Asher himself said;
I chose this unorthodox approach to bring my concerns to the attention of the Parliament and the public. I would welcome a discussion regarding the establishment of a parliamentary committee or some other accountability mechanism to specifically review my work and with whom I could raise issues of concern without compromise to the independence of my office.
Therein lies the particular issue. We have a number of statutory offices that are not subject to Ministerial direction like a Department. The ACCC, ACMA and ASIC are such bodies. Minister's can't really be "held to account" for administration in some ways by pleading the agency's independence.
Asher is not the first head of an agency to find budgets an issue. The ACMA utilised a number of channels to make submissions about the impact of Tanner's "efficiency dividend" on small agencies. There are routes other than feeding questions to Senators.
However, there does appear to be merit in creating more direct parliamentary oversight of agencies that are created to be independent of the Executive.
That said, it is hard to understand why Asher was not simply patient enough to include the issues in his annual report.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Green barreling and the MFP
Henry Ergas has launched a tirade against the Government's climate change policy. He is reasonably concerned about the prospect of "painting the pork barrell green" through the $10B in subsidies available from the Green Energy Finance Corporation.
My problem is that I don't see much better on the other side where EVERYTHING is by "direct action."
I don't accept the generic conclusion that;
. Rather, analyses consistently conclude that each dollar spent on this type of government venture simply crowds out one dollar of private investment elsewhere in the economy. But that government dollar both achieves less than the dollar it displaces and costs more, because distorting taxes are needed to raise it. It therefore ends up costing two or more dollars in lost income.
Targeted investment in creating comparative advantage can work in the long run. But the focus has to be on identifying places where investment in capability can generate returns. Australian Governments have invested successfully for years in agriculture research to create comparative advantage in agriculture markets.
He also completely loses me by asserting "the Hawke Govt Multi-Function Polis sought to get us into electronics?" Blowed if I know where that came from.
The MFP was a proposal from Japan's MITI for a city based on adapting all the latest in technology. It was made in the late eighties. The proposal looked more like a plan to build a giant Japanese retirement village on the North coast of Queensland. By 1990 one report described it as;
a model city for 21st century conditions, arising out of the new possibilities for urban living associated with telecommunications, internationalisation and an information intense environment.
The Government tried to engage with the plan hiring Clem Doherty of McKinsey (now on the NBN Board). The implementation of it swung from being a network of MFPs in each state (to avoid having to decide) before uniquly settling on a swamp near Adelaide. Having now not met any of the Japanese objectives interest from there wained and the proposal slowly died.
I'm also struggling to understand how the world "slumped" in electronics after the late eighties? Maybe the established economies did, but that's a very large part of China and Korea's industrial output.
Note 1: I have somewhere (or had) a copy of the original MITI proposal. If I find it I'll put it up on a website somewhere.
Note 2: There is a wealth of information available on the MFP. Below is a short bibliography from Trove.
The multifunction polis / David Kennedy
Multifunction Polis Conference, 8-10th November 1989, Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia : conference papers
The multifunction polis : an evolving process / Thomas Mandeville
Multifunction polis : social issues study : a report / prepared for the Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce by David Yencken
Queensland multifunction polis : the natural choice for Australia's future
Serendipity city : Australia, Japan and the multifunction polis / Walter Hamilton
The clever city : Japan, Australia, and the multifunction polis / Ian Inkster
Evaluation of Commonwealth support for the multifunction polis / Bureau of Industry Economics
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
My problem is that I don't see much better on the other side where EVERYTHING is by "direct action."
I don't accept the generic conclusion that;
. Rather, analyses consistently conclude that each dollar spent on this type of government venture simply crowds out one dollar of private investment elsewhere in the economy. But that government dollar both achieves less than the dollar it displaces and costs more, because distorting taxes are needed to raise it. It therefore ends up costing two or more dollars in lost income.
Targeted investment in creating comparative advantage can work in the long run. But the focus has to be on identifying places where investment in capability can generate returns. Australian Governments have invested successfully for years in agriculture research to create comparative advantage in agriculture markets.
He also completely loses me by asserting "the Hawke Govt Multi-Function Polis sought to get us into electronics?" Blowed if I know where that came from.
The MFP was a proposal from Japan's MITI for a city based on adapting all the latest in technology. It was made in the late eighties. The proposal looked more like a plan to build a giant Japanese retirement village on the North coast of Queensland. By 1990 one report described it as;
a model city for 21st century conditions, arising out of the new possibilities for urban living associated with telecommunications, internationalisation and an information intense environment.
The Government tried to engage with the plan hiring Clem Doherty of McKinsey (now on the NBN Board). The implementation of it swung from being a network of MFPs in each state (to avoid having to decide) before uniquly settling on a swamp near Adelaide. Having now not met any of the Japanese objectives interest from there wained and the proposal slowly died.
I'm also struggling to understand how the world "slumped" in electronics after the late eighties? Maybe the established economies did, but that's a very large part of China and Korea's industrial output.
Note 1: I have somewhere (or had) a copy of the original MITI proposal. If I find it I'll put it up on a website somewhere.
Note 2: There is a wealth of information available on the MFP. Below is a short bibliography from Trove.
The multifunction polis / David Kennedy
Multifunction Polis Conference, 8-10th November 1989, Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia : conference papers
The multifunction polis : an evolving process / Thomas Mandeville
Multifunction polis : social issues study : a report / prepared for the Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce by David Yencken
Queensland multifunction polis : the natural choice for Australia's future
Serendipity city : Australia, Japan and the multifunction polis / Walter Hamilton
The clever city : Japan, Australia, and the multifunction polis / Ian Inkster
Evaluation of Commonwealth support for the multifunction polis / Bureau of Industry Economics
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Pirates and Occupiers
Various
http://theconversation.edu.au/how-can-australias-politics-be-improved-2996?utm_source=The+Conversation+Daily+updates&utm_campaign=50e27d0fde-DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email
Pirate party
The Occupy Wall Street mob continue to confound analysts. The latest is a piece that sees the major learning from the occupiers the use of social media.
That, I'm afraid, is already old news. If you needed OWS to alert you to the capacity of social media to whip up a storm, then you've been living under a rock.
The piece ends "The greatest irony would be businesses learning from the protesters and becoming more effective." He states this because as far as he understands OWS is;
A “hashtag revolt”. It’s a description that goes to the heart of their lack of specific demands as they huddle around pizza boxes, sleeping bags and dress up as zombies to challenge the influence of corporations on government and the growing income gaps in society.
I continue to be bemused by the thought that OWS has no "specific demands" and that they are inherently anti-business or capitalism.
They are people who are trying to tell us that capitalism and democracy are both broken, and they are broken because both have allowed power to become concentrated. They don't want them replaced - they want them fixed.
A counterpart to OWS has been the European development of the Pirate Party, which has recently started to achieve electoral success.
The German Party has its foundations in a libertarian approach to the Internet. One of the things that this approach reveals is a faith in crowd-sourcing, of commons, ultimately of co-operative endeavour. As a group they have a particular stance on how the question of intellectual property should be dealt with. They have more faith in the co-operative rather than property rights approach.
The other initiative they have is "liquid democracy" which is an attempt to combine representative and direct democracy. Rather than electing one person to represent you on everything you get to vote for different candidates for different things. So, say, you like Liberals to manage the economy but the ALP on social policy you give the Liberals the right to represent you on one and the ALP on the other.
The concept has merits - and would work better if we moved to the idea of members of parliament having a vote equal to the size of their electorate (or number of people who preferred them in a multi seat electorate)rather than just one vote.
You could then envision a multi-member electorate of three members each of whom has a different numbers of votes on different issues. It is the kind of innovative idea that can come from applying 21st century technology to democracy.
Unfortunately the Australian party is not that well advanced.
I won't, however, be holding my breath expecting anything similar from those trying to "renew" the ALP.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
http://theconversation.edu.au/how-can-australias-politics-be-improved-2996?utm_source=The+Conversation+Daily+updates&utm_campaign=50e27d0fde-DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email
Pirate party
The Occupy Wall Street mob continue to confound analysts. The latest is a piece that sees the major learning from the occupiers the use of social media.
That, I'm afraid, is already old news. If you needed OWS to alert you to the capacity of social media to whip up a storm, then you've been living under a rock.
The piece ends "The greatest irony would be businesses learning from the protesters and becoming more effective." He states this because as far as he understands OWS is;
A “hashtag revolt”. It’s a description that goes to the heart of their lack of specific demands as they huddle around pizza boxes, sleeping bags and dress up as zombies to challenge the influence of corporations on government and the growing income gaps in society.
I continue to be bemused by the thought that OWS has no "specific demands" and that they are inherently anti-business or capitalism.
They are people who are trying to tell us that capitalism and democracy are both broken, and they are broken because both have allowed power to become concentrated. They don't want them replaced - they want them fixed.
A counterpart to OWS has been the European development of the Pirate Party, which has recently started to achieve electoral success.
The German Party has its foundations in a libertarian approach to the Internet. One of the things that this approach reveals is a faith in crowd-sourcing, of commons, ultimately of co-operative endeavour. As a group they have a particular stance on how the question of intellectual property should be dealt with. They have more faith in the co-operative rather than property rights approach.
The other initiative they have is "liquid democracy" which is an attempt to combine representative and direct democracy. Rather than electing one person to represent you on everything you get to vote for different candidates for different things. So, say, you like Liberals to manage the economy but the ALP on social policy you give the Liberals the right to represent you on one and the ALP on the other.
The concept has merits - and would work better if we moved to the idea of members of parliament having a vote equal to the size of their electorate (or number of people who preferred them in a multi seat electorate)rather than just one vote.
You could then envision a multi-member electorate of three members each of whom has a different numbers of votes on different issues. It is the kind of innovative idea that can come from applying 21st century technology to democracy.
Unfortunately the Australian party is not that well advanced.
I won't, however, be holding my breath expecting anything similar from those trying to "renew" the ALP.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
Fantasy from the IPA
Only an ideological puritan from the IPA could argue that the volatility in equity and other markets is all the fault of Governments.
The item notes
There is also international empirical evidence to suggest that share markets returns are lower and volatility is higher when legislatures are in session, which is not altogether surprising given the role of taxation and regulatory policies on the economic climate for private sector activity.
and
Economic growth, be it at a national or global level, can only be led from the front by a private sector unencumbered by the unsustainable debts, uncompetitive tax regimes and onerous regulations of big governments.
A fascinating read really that completely fails to address the actual problem, which is that markets have two means of valuing assets, and that one of them can result in incorrect movements. What I didn't say is that at heart the conditions identified by Keynes for creation of a depression is a case of just the same kind. When consumers think prices will decline in the future or their income is insecure they stop spending thus fulfilling the expectation. Such cycles are not broken by natural market forces.
The reported comment of Kevin Rudd that "the global economy as a 'wild beast,' and that the task of policymakers is to 'tame the beast to the greatest extent we can.'" can be read two ways. One - what I think is the intended one - is to act to ensure market rules are established so that markets work. The other would be to assume it means replace markets with something else. As all totalitarian regimes have found you can't replace markets, merely drive them underground.
It would be nice if fans of markets were to talk about real markets and real people.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
The item notes
There is also international empirical evidence to suggest that share markets returns are lower and volatility is higher when legislatures are in session, which is not altogether surprising given the role of taxation and regulatory policies on the economic climate for private sector activity.
and
Economic growth, be it at a national or global level, can only be led from the front by a private sector unencumbered by the unsustainable debts, uncompetitive tax regimes and onerous regulations of big governments.
A fascinating read really that completely fails to address the actual problem, which is that markets have two means of valuing assets, and that one of them can result in incorrect movements. What I didn't say is that at heart the conditions identified by Keynes for creation of a depression is a case of just the same kind. When consumers think prices will decline in the future or their income is insecure they stop spending thus fulfilling the expectation. Such cycles are not broken by natural market forces.
The reported comment of Kevin Rudd that "the global economy as a 'wild beast,' and that the task of policymakers is to 'tame the beast to the greatest extent we can.'" can be read two ways. One - what I think is the intended one - is to act to ensure market rules are established so that markets work. The other would be to assume it means replace markets with something else. As all totalitarian regimes have found you can't replace markets, merely drive them underground.
It would be nice if fans of markets were to talk about real markets and real people.
Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est
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