Monday, September 05, 2011

Repeating myself on the ALP and Leadership

Ahh Joe Hildebrand, having spent weeks trying to make the Craig Thomson matter into a crisis that it is not, now blames Labor for its timidity. He seems to think they should launch a pre-emptive attack to make any election a carnage, or that it should surrender meekly.

More reasoned is the view coming from Malcolm Colless, that canvasses the options and considers that the only two credible strategies, Rudd and Smith, provide no real option.

Hildebrand in a fine piece of illogic says;

The impending death of the Labor Government is now an absolute certainty. There is no way on earth that the ALP will win the next election, if indeed it is able to make it that far in the first place.

I'm pretty sure that the next election will be either 2013 or the day that the ALP leader decides they no longer have the confidence of the Parliament and visits the GG and advises that the GG should call an election. The option of an early election rather than inviting Abbott to form Government would be presented to the GG as (1) able to better realign the next Reps and Senate election and (2) recognise that the Abbott minority Government would be even less able to secure its legislative program given the composition of the Senate. To the ALP it means that Abbott doesn't get the Fraser advantage of running the campaign from Government.

Given this fact, and given the likely outcomes for some of the independents, they will not be moving any time soon. (Also if the ALP faces a prospective losable by-election the PM should also recommend a full election).

That means the ALP should assume it has two more years.

The ALP has one option left to it - and that is the option that I think they thought they were pursuing in displacing Rudd. The Government has to stop being "Presidential". There is nothing more pathetic than the PM fronting press conferences with relevant Ministers on matters of policy. Let Ministers do that themselves.

The PM did not need to make the comments critical of the High Court, but not because they were an attack on the judiciary. But they gave the discussion more air.

The simple statement is "The Government is of course disappointed in the decision. Clearly we were not expecting it, our advice on these matters was different but wrong. This is an expression of how our system works and works well.

The Court's decision leaves no party in Australia with the ability to promote an offshore processing solution, be that Malaysia, PNG or Nauru.

We will continue to review options that will discourage people from making the expensive and dangerous journey to Australia by boat."

In particular get a core group up whose job it is to talk about all aspects of the Government.

A mini-reshuffle would help. Not to move Bowen in immigration he is doing OK and better than Burke, but Simon Crean and Jenny Macklin need to be retired. And Wayne Swan needs to be replaced as Treasurer, and as Deputy PM. Shorten as Treasurer - Rudd or Smith as Deputy PM.

Creating a diffuse target and not talking about the opposition will deprive Abbott of air.

I first wrote of this in May, and my views haven't changed.

Novae Meridianae Demetae Dexter delenda est

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