Tuesday, August 24, 2010

50 year planning

With the NBN much in the news an interesting question emerges, can one undertake a 50 year plan and could a Government agency do it.

The latest TJA covers the fact that the journal is 75 years old. One item covers the document known as the Community Telephone Plan 1960. This was the plan for automated switching (andhence dialling) across the country.

It includes a table that estimates telephone requirements for 2010 (i.e. now) - reproduced below.

How did they go? Population of 33 million is too high - currently the ABS has it at 22,434,746.

How about telephone lines - or "exchange services". Telstra results to 30 June report 8,660 thousand PSTN lines. Interestingly they overshot the population estimate but got the exchange line density about right.  Especially if the 1,308 thousand ISDN services and the 831 thousand ULLs are added.  (46% in the plan, 48% in reality).

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